Kalshi's deals with CBS, CNN and CNBC put election odds on air despite 60% public opposition
Kalshi has deals to put its prices on CBS, CNN and CNBC while 60% of US adults oppose election betting, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found. The trader-concentration data that exists is for Polymarket, where the top 1% of wallets make 68% of congressional-market volume, an August analysis found.
The Investor · Invest desk
80% of Polymarket's 2026 congressional markets have fewer than 100 wallets trading; the top 1% of wallets account for 68% of trading volume on those markets; 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans oppose election betting.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket congressional markets, under 100 wallets | 80% | 11 | |
| Polymarket congressional volume from top 1% of wallets | 68% | 2026 congressional markets, August | 10 |
| Democrats who oppose election betting | 69% | Republicans: 61% | 1 |
What happened
- CBS News said on Sept. 30 that it would add real-time Kalshi prices to its midterm coverage.
- The opposition crosses party lines: 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans oppose election betting.
- In the Anti-Corruption Data Collective's August analysis, 80% of Polymarket's 2026 congressional markets have fewer than 100 wallets trading.
- Pew's September analysis found that Kalshi and Polymarket's combined monthly volume grew from about $26 billion in May to $53 billion in July, more than twice the earlier level.
Why it matters
- exposure If Kalshi's congressional books look like Polymarket's, fewer than 100 wallets could be setting the number a network shows beside its own polling.
- decision CBS News and CNN have shared an owner since Oct. 6, so one company can set a common policy on how Kalshi prices are shown or labeled at both networks.
- constraint Pew's totals add $27 billion of monthly volume, but they count contracts at their $1 payout and sports drove most of the gain, so they cannot size what election markets earn Kalshi.
- contradiction Gouker attributes thin election trading to a shortage of events, not to public disapproval, so the 60% opposition may not be what limits market depth.
Opposition to election betting outnumbers support by about 4.6 to 1 [17], and another 24% of respondents are unsure [5]. Three-quarters call prediction-market wagering a form of gambling, and only 7% said they had used a prediction market to bet money [2]. "Most view prediction markets as a form of gambling, and it's clear that they do not see elections or government decision-making as appropriate subjects for it," Alec Tyson, lead pollster and a senior vice president at Ipsos U.S. Public Affairs, said in comments to Fortune [3]. The poll of 4,506 adults ran from Sept. 30 through Oct. 5 and has a margin of sampling error of 1.5 percentage points [4].
Kalshi disputes the poll. "It's not hard to bias a poll and this poll is biased," a Kalshi spokesperson said in a statement to Fortune [19]. According to Fortune, the questionnaire did not use the word "war," but it described prediction markets as letting people "wager money on the outcome of real-world events" and asked separately about elections, military actions, government policy decisions and sports [20]. It never asked respondents how familiar they were with prediction markets [20]. In March, an Ipsos poll conducted for the American Institute for Boys and Men put the share of Americans very or somewhat familiar with prediction markets at 21% [21]. Kalshi said that "a clearer picture would come from research that measures familiarity, uses neutral wording, and reports all responses" [22]. Ipsos had not responded by publication time [23].
The concentration figures in the August analysis describe Polymarket. The prices CBS will show come from Kalshi [6], and Fortune's account does not include a trader-concentration figure for Kalshi or the terms of the network deals. A price is what the last trade cleared at. It becomes a forecast only when enough independent money stands behind it.
Thin books may have a cause unrelated to public opinion. Dustin Gouker, a gambling industry analyst who writes the prediction market newsletter The Event Horizon, said sports offer frequent events and fast-changing odds that give people more reasons to trade [12]. "I don't think it's necessarily that election trading isn't popular," Gouker told Fortune. "It's more that it doesn't feature some of the things that we see in these markets that are seeing more volume." [13]
In our view, an on-air price is only as informative as the number of independent wallets behind it, and for Kalshi that number is unknown. CBS is keeping its own polling next to the price [7], so it has not handed the forecast to Kalshi. We could be wrong in several ways. Kalshi's congressional books may be much deeper than Polymarket's. The poll may overstate opposition among people who know the product, as Kalshi argues. And Polymarket argues that its audience extends beyond bettors [24], so a viewer who checks the odds is not necessarily one. A wallet count for Kalshi's congressional markets would settle the first of these: a figure near Polymarket's would confirm our view, and one far above it would not.
What to watch
- Whether Kalshi or the networks publish wallet counts or trading depth for congressional markets before the midterms.
- Whether Ipsos answers Kalshi's criticism or a follow-up poll measures familiarity with prediction markets.
- How CBS and CNN, now under one owner, label Kalshi prices on air next to their own polling.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives65
- Confidence60
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Opposition to election betting crosses party lines, with 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans opposing it.
- [2]
Three-quarters of Americans consider prediction-market wagering a form of gambling, and only 7% of respondents said they had used a prediction market to bet money.
- [3]
"Most view prediction markets as a form of gambling, and it's clear that they do not see elections or government decision-making as appropriate subjects for it," said Alec Tyson, a senior vice president and lead pollster at Ipsos U.S. Public Affairs, who told Fortune.
- [4]
Ipsos surveyed 4,506 U.S. adults from Sept. 30 through Oct. 5; the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.
- [5]
A Reuters/Ipsos poll provided to Fortune found 60% of U.S. adults oppose using prediction markets to wager on election results, 13% support it and 24% are unsure.
- [6]
CBS News said Sept. 30 it would add real-time prices from Kalshi to its midterm coverage.
- [7]
CBS News said the Kalshi prices will run alongside its own polling.
- [8]
Kalshi has similar deals with CNN and CNBC, and it licenses vote counts and race calls from the Associated Press.
- [9]
CBS News and CNN now share an owner: Skydance, which completed its purchase of CNN's parent, Warner Bros. Discovery, on Oct. 6.
- [10]
On Polymarket's global platform, the top 1% of wallets account for 68% of trading volume on 2026 congressional markets, according to an August analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a nonprofit research and advocacy group.
- [11]
On Polymarket's global platform, 80% of 2026 congressional markets have fewer than 100 wallets trading, according to the Anti-Corruption Data Collective's August analysis.
- [12]
Dustin Gouker, a gambling industry analyst and author of the prediction market newsletter The Event Horizon, said sports offer what elections struggle to match: frequent events and fast-changing odds that give people more reasons to trade.
- [13]
"I don't think it's necessarily that election trading isn't popular," Gouker told Fortune. "It's more that it doesn't feature some of the things that we see in these markets that are seeing more volume."
- [14]
Combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket more than doubled, from about $26 billion in May to $53 billion in July, according to a September Pew Research Center analysis.
- [15]
Sports drove most of the increase in combined Kalshi and Polymarket monthly volume between May and July.
- [16]
The Pew totals cover all trading and count contracts at their potential $1 payout rather than their purchase price; they do not represent company revenue or the cash traders spent.
- [17]
Opposition to election betting outnumbers support by about 4.6 to 1 in the Reuters/Ipsos poll.
- [18]
Combined Kalshi and Polymarket monthly volume rose by about $27 billion between May and July.
- [19]
"It's not hard to bias a poll and this poll is biased," a Kalshi spokesperson said in a statement to Fortune.
- [20]
The questionnaire did not use the word "war." It described prediction markets as allowing people to "wager money on the outcome of real-world events," then asked separately about elections, military actions, government policy decisions, and sports, and did not measure familiarity.
- [21]
A March Ipsos poll for the American Institute for Boys and Men found just 21% of Americans were very or somewhat familiar with prediction markets.
- [22]
"We welcome research on our industry, but a clearer picture would come from research that measures familiarity, uses neutral wording, and reports all responses," Kalshi said.
- [23]
Ipsos did not respond to Kalshi's criticism by publication time.
- [24]
Polymarket argues that its audience extends beyond bettors.
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Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- fortune.comElection odds are coming to your TV this fall. 60% of Americans oppose betting on elections
1 article · October 12, 2026
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