company
Prediction market where the agents placed bets on the final three matches of the 2026 World Cup without human review.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
Terry Duffy mocked Kalshi's hot dog contract; Luana Lopes Lara asked about CME's manipulation record. The live question is whether event contracts get exchange-grade oversight, and who writes it.
Reality
A new Anti-Corruption Data Collective report classifies 556 Polymarket wallets as likely insider traders, moving the issue from individual prosecutions to a measurable population.
Reality
A parse of all 584,210 listed contracts finds one oracle operator deciding 20.31% of them. The resolution risk sits in feeds and scoreboards, not in arbiters.
Reality
Delaware County amended its election worker oath to cover bets and wagers. It is the first concrete sign that liquid election markets manufacture insider-risk controls where none existed.
Reality
A CFTC-designated exchange wants a federal judge to rule its sports contracts are swaps. The answer decides which states a venue class clearing $9.5 billion a day can legally serve.
Reality
An Israeli Air Force major was arrested for allegedly betting on Polymarket with classified strike intelligence. It is the second such case, and the first cost one officer's alleged profits nothing.
Reality
The regulator is reviewing whether contracts on what announcers say are too easy to manipulate. That is a test of how a product is built, not of whether the event is legal to trade.
Reality
An open eBay market prices deductible-looking gambling losses at fractions of a cent on the dollar. The platform says it removes listings promoting improper uses. Preparers are the other exposure.
Reality
RSBIX LLC filed in September 2025 expecting clearance by March 2026. Approval may now land as late as Q3 2026, which is the most specific public read available on CFTC pacing.
Reality
A King County judge sorted Kalshi's markets into two piles: sports and politics must be geofenced by September 2, while commodities, climate, economics and finance stay live.
Reality
Eight autonomous agents held their own USDC wallets, bought data over x402 and settled on Polymarket unsupervised. The spending caps are the part worth copying.
Reality