company
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform where users trade on the outcomes of real-world events, including politics, sports, and finance.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
Bitcoin came within $650 of its $87,177 Friday high on Sunday while weekly US spot ETF inflows fell to about $83 million from $2.39 billion. October's seasonal record now has to carry a rally that fund money is backing at a fraction of September's pace.
Reality
Bitcoin briefly crossed $87,000 on Oct. 2 after US employers added just 29,000 jobs in September against about 90,000 expected. Traders added roughly $2.3 billion of futures positions during the climb, so more leverage now rides on the Fed's Oct. 28 decision.
Perspective Coverage
13 publishersReality
Datafolha has Lula at 42% and Flavio Bolsonaro at 38% before Sunday's vote, both short of the 50% that avoids a runoff. Holders of Brazilian assets now carry election risk past Sunday into a second vote that the first-round lead does little to settle.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishersReality
Crypto's 635-page Clarity Act stalled in the Senate with no realistic path back before year-end, Cato's Ryan Chan-Wei wrote. He blames an ethics dispute over conflicts at the highest levels of government, and that dispute will meet whatever bill the next Congress writes.
Perspective Coverage
18 publishersReality
D. Todd Christofferson, one of the Latter-day Saints' three top leaders, called prediction markets gambling that yields "nothing of value." The speech sets the Utah-based church against the Trump administration's view that Kalshi and Polymarket are not gambling.
Reality
Polymarket has taken $77,507 in positions on whether the world's biggest banks, HSBC and Lloyds among them, fail by year-end. For British lenders the exposure is how fast that price could travel on social media during a period of stress.
Reality
Economist Victor Matheson puts 2025 US sports betting on prediction markets at $50 billion to $100 billion, handle that state regulators cannot see. Kalshi's pending federal appeals will shape whether that money stays outside state gambling law.
Reality
Fed policymakers raised rates 12-0 to 3.75%-4% on Sept. 16, and 16 of 18 projected at least one more quarter-point hike this year. Long yields have since risen more than the hike itself, so borrowers have more reason to plan around that projection than around President Trump's complaint.
Reality
Blockchain.com is seeking about $500 million from a US listing at a $4 billion to $6 billion valuation, below the $7 billion its 2023 round set. The range opens at roughly the $4 billion that secondary trades already imply, so tokenized stocks and prediction markets have to justify every dollar above it.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishersReality
CFTC sent the White House two rules on Sept. 28 that would define event contracts as swaps and carve out casino-style gambling products. The agency is trying to settle by rule a state-federal fight that has split appeals courts and now sits before the Supreme Court.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishersReality
One attacker pushed more than twenty malicious GitHub repos from a hijacked account in February, several posing as Polymarket copy-trading bots. Garnet's maintainer published a fifteen-minute checklist for tracing what a bot does with the one signing key it needs.
Reality
Kalshi will end its volume rebate on or after October 13 as the CFTC reportedly reviews over $5 billion in repeated ether perpetual trades. Kalshi says paid market makers produced those prints, leaving investors at a $40 billion valuation to judge how much liquidity was bought.
Reality
Polymarket launched opt-in deposit limits, self-exclusion and mental-health referrals on September 30, six days after New York sued it over sports contracts. The tools come alongside its federal-court claim that commodity law overrides the state's gambling statutes.
Reality
Polymarket has added deposit caps users cannot reverse, plus self-exclusion, after sports and parlays took over 98% of its September trading volume. Kalshi, which the CFTC regulates, already offered the same tools, so they help Polymarket defend itself in New York's gambling suit as much as they make it look like a sportsbook.
Reality
Crypto apps generated $3.3 billion in fees in the third quarter, $1.44 billion of it in September, led by Solana and Robinhood Chain launchpads. The fee-sharing tokens behind the jump were fading by month-end, so October's total will show how much of that cash repeats.
Reality
Polymarket, valued at about $21 billion, hired ex-Goldman partner Lisa Mantil to bring big traders onto its US exchange. She starts selling while federal investigators, House members and New York officials still dispute how its contracts should be policed.
Reality
Diesel at $6.53 a gallon is a political problem for Trump. The remedy under discussion would hold a record 1.6 million barrels a day at home, in a market where the world price still sets the US price.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishersReality
Kalshi took $15.8 billion of the $20.4 billion prediction markets traded last week, per Artemis, the first week above $20 billion. It books each contract at its $1 payout, so the record counts payouts written, well above the cash traders put at risk.
Reality
Kalshi lost its Tennessee injunction at the Sixth Circuit, putting states ahead 2-1 in appeals courts over its sports contracts. New York's suit against Polymarket prices a loss at the alleged gains plus a penalty three times as large.
Reality
New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Polymarket as an unlicensed gambling business, the state's fourth such case, and Polymarket countersued within hours. Platforms are now setting age limits and state-by-state access while courts decide whether states or the CFTC govern prediction markets.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishersReality
Build · September 27, 2026 · 2 publishers
Invest · August 15, 2026 · 3 publishers
Invest · August 15, 2026 · 2 publishers
Invest · August 16, 2026 · 3 publishers
Invest · September 27, 2026 · 12 publishers
Invest · August 17, 2026 · 3 publishers
Invest · August 18, 2026 · 3 publishers
Invest · August 19, 2026 · 2 publishers
Invest · August 20, 2026 · 3 publishers
Invest · September 1, 2026 · 5 publishers
Invest · September 2, 2026 · 2 publishers
Invest · September 25, 2026 · 1 publisher
Invest · September 25, 2026 · 1 publisher
Invest · September 11, 2026 · 4 publishers
Product · September 11, 2026 · 1 publisher
Invest · September 14, 2026 · 12 publishers
Leadership · September 14, 2026 · 2 publishers
Invest · September 20, 2026 · 5 publishers
Invest · September 21, 2026 · 2 publishers
Invest · September 22, 2026 · 5 publishers
Build · September 24, 2026 · 1 publisher
Invest · September 23, 2026 · 1 publisher
Invest · September 23, 2026 · 2 publishers
Invest · September 22, 2026 · 1 publisher
Product · September 22, 2026 · 1 publisher
Invest · September 22, 2026 · 1 publisher
Invest · September 22, 2026 · 1 publisher
Invest · September 21, 2026 · 1 publisher
Invest · September 20, 2026 · 1 publisher
Product · September 20, 2026 · 1 publisher
Invest · September 17, 2026 · 3 publishers
Product · September 16, 2026 · 1 publisher
Science · September 16, 2026 · 1 publisher
Product · September 16, 2026 · 1 publisher
Invest · September 15, 2026 · 1 publisher
Invest · September 14, 2026 · 1 publisher
Invest · September 14, 2026 · 1 publisher
Invest · September 14, 2026 · 1 publisher
Invest · September 13, 2026 · 1 publisher
Invest · September 1, 2026 · 7 publishers