Terry Duffy mocked Kalshi's hot dog contract; Luana Lopes Lara asked about CME's manipulation record. The live question is whether event contracts get exchange-grade oversight, and who writes it.
Publishers:decrypt.co
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives78
- Confidence58
Robert DeNault and Wharton's Daniel Taylor argue SONAR-style tools are built for the wrong insider. In prediction markets, the insider can know the contract's answer.
Publishers:corpgov.law.harvard.edu
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap
A Cboe paper says a 0.94% index slip paid 9.4% on a 10x short perpetual future and 404% on an at-the-money 0DTE put. The CFTC's Kalshi approval makes that distinction a regulatory question.
Publishers:cryptobriefing.com
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption63
The reserve fell below 300 million barrels for the first time since the 1980s, and the argument is no longer about willingness to release oil. It is about salt.
Publishers:cryptobriefing.com · fortune.com
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption68
A Big Four audit answers the backing question for $183 billion of USDT. It does not turn a $6.8 billion excess into a treasury-grade cushion.
Publishers:fortune.com
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption62
Delaware County amended its election worker oath to cover bets and wagers. It is the first concrete sign that liquid election markets manufacture insider-risk controls where none existed.
Publishers:wired.com
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption26
A CFTC-designated exchange wants a federal judge to rule its sports contracts are swaps. The answer decides which states a venue class clearing $9.5 billion a day can legally serve.
Publishers:cryptopolitan.com
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption71
The regulator is reviewing whether contracts on what announcers say are too easy to manipulate. That is a test of how a product is built, not of whether the event is legal to trade.
Publishers:crowdfundinsider.com
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption58
An open eBay market prices deductible-looking gambling losses at fractions of a cent on the dollar. The platform says it removes listings promoting improper uses. Preparers are the other exposure.
Publishers:fortune.com
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption30
RSBIX LLC filed in September 2025 expecting clearance by March 2026. Approval may now land as late as Q3 2026, which is the most specific public read available on CFTC pacing.
Publishers:cryptobriefing.com
Reality
- Evidence26
- Adoption21
Nevada's gaming regulator wants Kalshi held in contempt over in-house location blocking. The arithmetic turns compliance engineering into the cheapest line on the page.
Publishers:cryptobriefing.com
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption30
A King County judge sorted Kalshi's markets into two piles: sports and politics must be geofenced by September 2, while commodities, climate, economics and finance stay live.
Publishers:arstechnica.com · gizmodo.com
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption48