Trump voters trail Harris voters by 18 points on midterm motivation in Reuters/Ipsos poll

Crypto Briefing, reporting the poll, said market pricing put a Democratic win in Florida's governor race at 22.5%, and called that consistent with what the poll implies ^[4]. If the contract has two outcomes, the Republican side is priced at about 77.5% ^[19], or better than three to one ^[23].

For every 100 voters in each 2024 camp, the poll counts 48 Harris voters as very motivated and 30 Trump voters ^[1]. The gap is 18 points ^[16], a ratio of 1.6 to 1 ^[17]. The motivation also has a direction. Among respondents who called themselves motivated, 62% wanted to vote against the president and 36% for him ^[9], a 26-point margin ^[20]. It points the same way as his net approval of minus 33, from 32% approving ^[2] and 65% disapproving ^{[3] [18]}.

Charlie Gerow, a Republican strategist, expects the gap to narrow as worry about a far-left Democratic Party taking power brings Republican voters out ^[11]. "Turnout is what decides midterm elections, so we need to get Republican voters fired up," Gerow said ^[10]. Older voters are the other offset. They make up a large share of the midterm electorate ^[8], and Republicans still lead among those 50 and over ^[7]. A third caveat is simpler: "very motivated" is an answer to a survey question, and turnout is counted in November.

That older-voter lead has shrunk from 8 points in December to 2 ^[7], a narrowing of 6 points ^[22]. Among men the move is bigger. Men now say they would back Democrats 43% to 39% ^[5], against a 12-point Trump margin with men in 2024 in Pew Research's analysis ^[6]. The implied swing is 16 points ^[21], though one figure is a vote cast and the other a stated intention.

I think the poll justifies marking down Republican turnout. It does not yet justify pricing a change in control of Congress. None of the reporting quotes a market price for control of the House or the Senate, so there is nothing to test the poll's turnout case against. The turnout view is wrong if the share of very motivated Trump voters climbs toward the Harris figure of 48% ^[1] by election day, as Gerow expects ^[11]. It is also wrong if Republicans rebuild their lead among voters over 50 toward the 8 points they held in December ^[7].