Treasury 10-year yields hit a 24-year high of 5.349% on Oct. 5, the day a U.S. services survey showed the highest prices reading since July 2022. French and Spanish strain looks secondary, since Spanish yields fell and French ones held that session.
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Tech heavyweights including Nvidia, Meta and Microsoft lifted the Nasdaq about 1% to a record on Monday as the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.31%. The Dow's much smaller gain puts the rally in a few large stocks, which held up while long-term yields rose even as the odds of a Fed hike fell.
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September payrolls of 29,000, against an 84,000 consensus, lifted the Nasdaq 1.2% on Friday and turned a losing week into a 0.45% gain. Every major index was down through Thursday, so the AI-led advance depends on the Fed staying on hold.
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Buyers pulled the 10-year Treasury yield from a 24-year high of 5.34% to a 5.233% close on Thursday, after its biggest quarterly rise since 1994. Part of that demand was a flight to safety, and part was a bet that the Fed holds off on further hikes.
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Bitcoin rose 0.9% to $84,376 after August core PCE came in at 3.0%, below the 3.3% economists expected. Lower odds of an October Fed hike did little for a market whose September rally ran on ETF inflows that have since faded.
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Long-dated Treasury yields have hit 21st-century highs on federal deficits, hyperscaler bond sales and oil near $100, even as August inflation came in soft. Some market participants cited by Seoul Economic Daily allow for a 6% 30-year yield, on debt supply the Fed's October meeting does not touch.
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Spending and Michigan sentiment both slipped, pushing odds of a Fed hold to 71.2%. For rate-sensitive books, the print that removes hike risk adds credit risk.
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July CPI at 0.1% and flat PPI took the near-term rate scare off the table. What is left holding up records above 7,800 is a bet on how long GPUs stay useful.
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Meta rose about 13% and Microsoft more than 4% in a week that took the 10-year Treasury yield past 5.2% and October Fed hike odds to 66%. Both moved on their own company news, and at 23 times forward earnings Meta now yields less than the Treasury.
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Brent near $108 and futures pricing a 92.3% chance of a Fed hike took the 10-year to 5.014% intraday. Capital Economics says the United States is not in a fiscal crisis yet because nominal growth still beats debt service.
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Bond traders pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.15% on Thursday, its highest since 2007, as oil returned to $105 a barrel. Fuel costs from the Iran war are now reaching borrowers through bets on another Fed rate hike.
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Mark Cabana's team has clients short SOFR and Fed Funds futures on a view that the federal funds target climbs toward 5.5%. Current swap pricing stops 75 basis points short of that.
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The 3-year Treasury closed Friday at 4.86%, up 144 basis points since the end of February, while the 10-year has found just enough buying to stall at 5.01%. Fifteen basis points now separate the two.
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A 3.4% headline CPI print has pushed odds on a September 15-16 Fed hike into the high 80s. Copper is off a record above $14,500 a tonne, and the two reasons given for that record, tight supply and tariff risk, are unchanged.
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Yields on 1- to 7-year Treasuries moved as much as 26 basis points in four days, and the short end is now priced for hikes. That changes the base case for anyone financing 2026.
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Private employers still added 30,000 in July and unemployment fell to 4.1%, which is exactly the mixed-but-stable backdrop that lets a split Fed hold 3.50% to 3.75% and keep inflation, not hiring, as the thing it is fixing.
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Postings in the US run 14% above March in September, and applications do not follow. Employers are bidding into the thinnest applicant flow of the year in a month when payrolls grew 162,000 and revisions added another 55,000.
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Processed intermediate goods rose 11.5 percent over 12 months while the prices firms finally charge rose 5.4 percent. Diesel accounts for most of August's monthly move, and the measure that excludes distributor margins accounts for the rest.
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Brent stayed above $100 even after a 2.81% drop, U.S. diesel reached $6.06 a gallon, and Saudi output fell to a three-decade low. Reported hike odds of 86.5% leave 13.5% for the outcome that would move more.
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Treasury tripled a routine operation and pointed it at the two maturities where the curve is printing out of order, which is a clearer statement about where it thinks the market is thin than anything in the release itself.
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