Topic
Event-contract exchanges such as Kalshi that let users take positions on sports, elections, politics and other real-world outcomes.
Terry Duffy mocked Kalshi's hot dog contract; Luana Lopes Lara asked about CME's manipulation record. The live question is whether event contracts get exchange-grade oversight, and who writes it.
Reality
A new Anti-Corruption Data Collective report classifies 556 Polymarket wallets as likely insider traders, moving the issue from individual prosecutions to a measurable population.
Reality
Robert DeNault and Wharton's Daniel Taylor argue SONAR-style tools are built for the wrong insider. In prediction markets, the insider can know the contract's answer.
Reality
A parse of all 584,210 listed contracts finds one oracle operator deciding 20.31% of them. The resolution risk sits in feeds and scoreboards, not in arbiters.
Reality
Delaware County amended its election worker oath to cover bets and wagers. It is the first concrete sign that liquid election markets manufacture insider-risk controls where none existed.
Reality
A CFTC-designated exchange wants a federal judge to rule its sports contracts are swaps. The answer decides which states a venue class clearing $9.5 billion a day can legally serve.
Reality
An Israeli Air Force major was arrested for allegedly betting on Polymarket with classified strike intelligence. It is the second such case, and the first cost one officer's alleged profits nothing.
Reality
US emergency crude stocks are at their lowest since 1983, according to NPR. Prediction markets moved the odds of a record crude price by December 31 from 10% to 12.5%.
Reality
The regulator is reviewing whether contracts on what announcers say are too easy to manipulate. That is a test of how a product is built, not of whether the event is legal to trade.
Reality
RSBIX LLC filed in September 2025 expecting clearance by March 2026. Approval may now land as late as Q3 2026, which is the most specific public read available on CFTC pacing.
Reality
Nevada's gaming regulator wants Kalshi held in contempt over in-house location blocking. The arithmetic turns compliance engineering into the cheapest line on the page.
Reality
A King County judge sorted Kalshi's markets into two piles: sports and politics must be geofenced by September 2, while commodities, climate, economics and finance stay live.
Reality