Sub-cent parlays supplied 86% of the growth in Kalshi's record Sunday volume

The 70% share covers every combo, and the sub-cent long shots are a narrower slice of it. According to news.bitcoin.com's read of Kalshi's daily market data, about 1.9 billion of Saturday's combo contracts and 1.6 billion of Sunday's sat in combos whose Yes side never traded at 1 cent or more ^[6]. Notional counts each contract at its full $1 payout ^[3], so that is 49% of Saturday's $3.91 billion and 40% of Sunday's $3.96 billion ^[1][15][16]. Taking the source's shares of the week-over-week gains, the tranche added roughly $344 million of Saturday's $459 million increase and $240 million of Sunday's $279 million ^[18].

The 13-leg combo on NFL winners shows what the notional figure is counting. On Sunday it traded 12.1 million contracts at Yes prices between 0.01 cent and 0.44 cent; buyers paid about $13,800, the other side put up about $12.1 million, and the parlay lost ^[10]. The buyers' cash was 0.11% of the notional that went into the record ^[21]. That is a story about collateral, or rather about who posts it: in these trades the other side puts up the rest of each $1 ^[7].

The sub-cent segment grew without program rewards. Kalshi's Volume Incentive Program pays a share of per-market rewards capped at half a cent per contract, and for event contracts only order-book trades between 3 and 97 cents qualify, so the sub-cent combos were outside it ^[13]. The Sept. 28 filing did not state a reason for ending the program early ^[12]. The filing arrived during a CFTC review of incentive programs at prediction markets, and after an August staff advisory cautioned that volume rewards built on steep tiers or threshold bonuses can encourage wash trading ^[14].

We think the next few weekends' totals will follow that sub-cent tranche. The counter-thesis is that the two products are not separate. NFL markets traded $572 million on Sunday, up 18% from a week earlier ^[11], and a 13-leg parlay on NFL winners ^[10] draws on the same games, so some of the parlay growth may be the same demand in a different contract.

We would be wrong if a weekend clears the $3.68 billion high ^[2] with the sub-cent tranche flat or smaller. Seven days above $3 billion, all since Sept. 19 ^[9], is also a short record to build on.