Blockchain.com is one of 12 firms seeking a CFTC exchange licence in 2026

Twelve firms are applying, and the same report counts six approvals. Crypto Briefing reads the 12 firms seeking similar approvals as a significant push toward regulated derivatives ^[6]. The Paypers counts 11 other DCM applicants in 2026 besides Blockchain.com ^[4], so 12 in all ^[14], and adds that the CFTC approved six new DCMs over the same period ^[5]. A regulator that has admitted six exchanges in a year is granting the licence. In our view the advantage then lies with customers who already keep their assets in the app. That is the claim Blockchain.com makes when it describes its aim as letting users manage digital assets, trade derivatives and take positions on real-world events in a single app ^[12].

The competition thesis is that more licensed venues divide the same flow, or rather the part of it that needs a federal licence to reach US users ^[13]. If the CFTC approves both filings and the bundle Blockchain.com already sells outside the US ^[3] carries over, the incumbent marketplaces face another retail app. Approval with thin US volume would make the licences a line in the listing story the company is preparing after its confidential SEC submission in May ^[8]. A review that drags on leaves the field as it is.

The reports leave open whether the six approvals came from the same twelve applicants. They give no CFTC decision date and no volume figure for any venue.

We think incumbents should expect a more crowded field, and that Blockchain.com is a small part of it. The counter-thesis is serious. Kalshi now sells perpetual futures to US customers and Polymarket to international ones ^[11], so the incumbents are already converging on each other. A late entrant whose products so far reach only customers abroad starts with the weakest position of the group. What would prove us wrong is an approval followed by US derivatives volume that is still small a year later, which the listing documents should show once they are public.