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Magnitude 7.7 quake on a shallow inland fault shakes about 4.6 million people in Panama

Panama was struck on Friday by a magnitude 7.7 earthquake near the village of Pitaloza Arriba, the USGS said. A USGS seismologist says the tsunami threat from the shallow, inland rupture has largely receded; shaking and aftershocks are the hazard that remains.

The Scientist · Science desk

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Photograph accompanying Magnitude 7.7 quake on a shallow inland fault shakes about 4.6 million people in Panama
Photo: latimes.com

What happened

  • Several large aftershocks followed the main shock, including one of magnitude 6, AFP reported.
  • AFP saw many people evacuated from buildings in Panama City, about 200 km from the epicentre.
  • President Jose Raul Mulino said on social media that he had ordered personnel, resources and aid mobilised to the affected area.
  • The USGS and the US embassy warned of a possible tsunami threat to Panama and eight other countries, among them Costa Rica, Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico.

Why it matters

  • contradiction Coastal residents get opposite signals from the two reports: AFP quotes the US Tsunami Warning System projecting waves up to 3 m for Panama's coast, while Scientific American says NOAA's system issued no alert of any kind.
  • cost If the USGS model holds, Panama faces dozens to hundreds of deaths and damage in the hundreds of millions of dollars, and officials had released no injury or death figures to check it against.
  • exposure Buildings in central Panama, where AFP says damage should be heaviest, now face the potentially strong aftershocks the USGS says could still follow.

Susan Hough, a seismologist at the USGS, traced the tsunami question to where the ground moved. "Because this was on land and shallow, you're not on the seafloor, so it didn't move the seafloor underneath the water column and that's what you need to generate a tsunami," she said [12]. She described the rupture as "a shallow lateral fault, what we call strike slip, so similar to the San Andreas" [21].

The shallow depth Hough cited against a tsunami also means more shaking at the surface, Scientific American noted [13]. AFP gave the depth as 12 km [7].

The USGS count of 4.6 million people in moderate to severe shaking [4] is roughly Panama's whole population, which AFP, also citing the USGS, put at about 4.5 million [6][24]. The thing this figure doesn't tell you is how many of those people felt severe shaking and how many felt moderate shaking. Near the epicentre, the population is relatively sparse [10]. The two reports place that epicentre slightly differently: about 14 km southwest of Pitaloza Arriba in Herrera Province, according to Scientific American [3], and 10 km from the town, according to AFP [2].

On the tsunami, we think Hough's physical argument is the better guide for now [11], on one condition: it holds only as long as later analysis keeps the rupture on land. The US embassy still told its citizens to keep away from the coast and to monitor local emergency broadcasts [23].

Panama sits near the meeting point of several plates, with the Cocos and Nazca plates to the south, the Caribbean plate to the north and the South American plate to the east [14]. Hough said the subduction zones near the country do not meet, and that this is why Panama usually has less powerful quakes [15]. When quakes do strike, they usually hit western Chiriqui province, AFP reported [16]. This one struck in Herrera Province instead [3]. The USGS first measured it at 8.0 before revising it to 7.7 [1].

"There's a complicated zone of faulting that's at that juncture, and so this earthquake was on one of those faults," Hough said. "It was quite large compared to other earthquakes that have been seen in that area." [22]

What to watch

  • Whether later US Tsunami Warning System bulletins confirm or withdraw the 3 m wave projection AFP reported for Panama's coast.
  • Official casualty and damage counts from Panama, measured against the USGS model's range of dozens to hundreds of deaths.
  • The size and timing of further aftershocks after the magnitude 6 already recorded.

Clarity's read

What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
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Hype gap+12
Incentives
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Confidence55
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Claim ledger

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  1. [1]

    The quake struck at 12:56 local time on Friday and was initially measured as magnitude 8.0 by the U.S. Geological Survey, later downgraded to 7.7.

    ReportedSupportedSource: Scientific American, citing USGS2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source
  2. [2]

    USGS said the quake was detected at 5:56 p.m. GMT with an epicenter 10 kilometers from the small town of Pitaloza Arriba in south-central Panama.

    ReportedSupportedSource: AFP via phys.org, citing USGS2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source
  3. [3]

    The quake struck around 9 miles (14 kilometers) southwest of Pitaloza Arriba, a small village in Panama's Herrera Province.

    ReportedSupportedSource: Scientific American2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source

Sources

4 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.

  1. mezha.net

    2 articles · October 10, 2026

    Землетрус магнітудою 7.7 стався в Панамі
  2. phys.org

    1 article · October 10, 2026

    Tsunami alert after major earthquake rocks Panama
  3. scientificamerican.com

    1 article · October 9, 2026

    Major earthquake strikes Panama—damage and injuries are expected
  4. scmp.com

    1 article · October 9, 2026

    Panama rocked by 2 powerful earthquakes, multiple aftershocks

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