Six NOAA DART buoys still showed the Pacific oscillating at 30- to 80-minute periods more than ten hours after Kamchatka's M8.8 quake in July 2025. The authors say that rhythm could help tsunami warnings, but their account stops before explaining how a warning center would use it.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives50
- Confidence50
University of Maine data put the 2026 El Nino's daily anomaly at 3.11C, above a record that had stood since November 2015. The USGS says such events tilt winter odds toward a wet South and a dry Northwest and Ohio Valley, but do not guarantee any pattern.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence40
The creep was about 10 millimetres a month, far too slow to trip any threshold set in advance. Manoochehr Shirzaei's preliminary read is that nobody was screening for the change in its rate.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 35%
- Operator
- Operator 54%
- Investor
- Investor 11%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Above-average June rain and a very wet August in Western Australia's Murchison brought carpets of wildflowers that Landsat 8 caught in late August, in a before-and-after pair where the ground is greener and the flowers themselves go uncounted.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives45
- Confidence62
A new model puts up to 6.2 miles of sediment under downtown and sharpens the basin's edges, the geometry a USGS seismologist credits for Santa Monica's unexpected damage in 1994. It is an input to shaking simulations.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives35
- Confidence66
Satellite and seismic analyses point to ice that snapped off above 5,000 metres, blocked the Lhende Khola and burst through hours later. Almost no rain preceded it, which is why the region's flood warning tools had nothing to read.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 43%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 19%
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption62
- Hype gap−8
- Incentives34
- Confidence70
An emergency order now screens transformers and inverters at 69 kV and above, while Tokyo rewrites its solar subsidy table toward perovskite, moving China de-risking out of the tariff schedule and into the purchase order.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+19
- Incentives55
- Confidence38
The archive that pushed Smyley Island's founding back to at least 1989 also shows the colony re-forming beside grounded icebergs after a probable total failure in 2022. That re-forming pattern is awkward for projections that hold breeding sites still.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption48
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives34
- Confidence52
A study in Earth's Future overlaid American landslide susceptibility with local socioeconomics for the first time. Where the maps are reddest, the households underneath them have the least money to engineer a slope or leave it.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives38
- Confidence58
A San Jose State team says the fault under Santa Clara County is not decelerating. The rate, its uncertainty band, and the journal are all still missing.
Reality
- Evidence18
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+52
- Incentives55
- Confidence30
A Montana State-led study in PNAS reads pollen, charcoal, arsenic and diatoms from closed lakes in the Lower Geyser Basin. Its framing: dry centuries brought less hydrothermal activity and more fire.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+13
- Incentives63
- Confidence50
A decade of borehole data from Ontario's Kidd Creek mine puts about 140 tonnes of hydrogen a year escaping unused. That is roughly where the evidence stands.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives66
- Confidence55