Simulated storms from seven climate models skew stronger near Hawai'i under high emissions
University of Hawai'i researchers project a shift toward stronger tropical cyclones near the islands in a warmer climate. The study could not say whether storm counts will rise, and El Niño and La Niña years differ less in its late-century runs.
The Scientist · Science desk
Storms within 300 nautical miles (556 km) of Hawai'i shift stronger in a simulated warmer future; totals uncertain. Nearby passes can bring flooding. El Niño historically favors stronger, more frequent storms; by late century it differs less from La Niña and its tracks shift southwest.
- capability Study's search radius Storms passing within 300 nautical miles (556 km) of Hawai'i, by frequency, intensity, tracks and landfalls, claim 6
- exposure Storms near Hawai'i A shift toward stronger storms in a warmer future; substantial uncertainty whether the total will increase, claim 1
- exposure Hawaiian Islands Nearby storms, not just landfalls, can bring damaging winds, rainfall, flooding, landslides and high surf, claim 15
- precedent El Niño, historically Tends to favor stronger and more frequent tropical cyclones near Hawai'i compared with La Niña, claim 9
- contradiction Late-century El Niño/La Niña Differences between them become less pronounced in the simulations, particularly for wind hazard, claim 10
- exposure Late-century El Niño tracks Storm tracks shift southwest of the Hawaiian Islands relative to La Niña conditions, claim 11
| Who | How | Kind | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Study's search radius | Storms passing within 300 nautical miles (556 km) of Hawai'i, by frequency, intensity, tracks and landfalls | capability | 6 |
| Storms near Hawai'i | A shift toward stronger storms in a warmer future; substantial uncertainty whether the total will increase | exposure | 1 |
| Hawaiian Islands | Nearby storms, not just landfalls, can bring damaging winds, rainfall, flooding, landslides and high surf | exposure | 15 |
| El Niño, historically | Tends to favor stronger and more frequent tropical cyclones near Hawai'i compared with La Niña | precedent | 9 |
| Late-century El Niño/La Niña | Differences between them become less pronounced in the simulations, particularly for wind hazard | contradiction | 10 |
| Late-century El Niño tracks | Storm tracks shift southwest of the Hawaiian Islands relative to La Niña conditions | exposure | 11 |
What happened
- Only a small number of tropical cyclones have directly affected the islands in the modern record, and that limited data makes rare-event probabilities hard to estimate.
- To get a larger sample, the team ran the Columbia Tropical Cyclone Hazard model, built by Chia-Ying Lee and Suzana Camargo, to generate thousands of years of synthetic storms from seven global climate models.
- The comparison covered historical, midcentury and late-century climates, with the future runs using a high-emissions scenario.
- In the late-century simulations, El Niño storm tracks shift southwest of the islands relative to La Niña conditions.
Why it matters
- constraint A return period is a statement about how often storms arrive, so the unresolved uncertainty over storm counts carries into any return-period figure built on this work.
- exposure Because the sample counts every storm within 300 nautical miles, the result covers near-misses, and the source frames damaging winds, rain, flooding, landslides and surf as hazards of nearby passes.
- decision Seasonal outlooks that treat El Niño as a guide to a busier Hawai'i year would be leaning on a signal that weakens by late century in these simulations.
Synthetic storms fix the sample-size problem and leave an input problem in place. Each simulated cyclone takes its atmosphere and ocean from one of seven global climate models [5], so the stronger-storm result is only as good as those models' tropical Pacific. It is not clear how much of the shift comes from the cyclone model and how much from the climate models feeding it. The published summary does not quantify how much stronger the storms get, in wind speed or return period, and does not say how closely the seven models agreed.
The scenario narrows the claim further. The future runs use a high-emissions pathway [7], so the result is conditional on a hot outcome. Even then, the study supports a shift toward stronger storms and could not say whether there will be more of them [1].
The El Niño result changes a relationship people already lean on. Historically, El Niño tends to favor stronger and more frequent cyclones near Hawai'i than La Niña does [9]. The team split El Niño and La Niña years to test whether that holds in a warmer climate [8]. In the late-century runs the gap narrows, particularly for wind hazard [10]. Christina Karamperidou, a co-author and SOEST atmospheric sciences professor, said: "That means climate change may alter not only the overall tropical cyclone hazard facing Hawai'i, but also how climate patterns such as El Niño and La Niña relate to when and where that hazard is greatest" [13].
Nicole Murray, the lead author, was a postdoctoral researcher in the SOEST Department of Atmospheric Sciences when the work was done and is now a scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory [14]. Murray said, "This research addresses a hazard that is rare in Hawai'i but can have enormous consequences when it occurs" [12]. Karamperidou pointed to this year's season, saying "Hurricane Lala passed just south of the islands in August and produced severe flooding and damaging winds across Hawai'i" [16]. Unlike those observed storms, the projection comes from the simulations, published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology [3].
What to watch
- Whether the paper quantifies the intensity shift and how closely the seven climate models agreed on it.
- Whether anyone repeats the analysis under a lower-emissions scenario, since the future runs here use only a high-emissions one.
- Any follow-up that narrows the uncertainty on storm counts near the islands, the one question this study leaves open.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
The study finds a shift toward stronger storms near Hawai'i in a warmer future, though substantial uncertainty remains about whether the total number of storms near the islands will increase.
- [2]
The study was led by researchers at the University of Hawai'i at Manoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST).
- [3]
The study is published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.
- [4]
Only a small number of tropical cyclones have directly affected the Hawaiian islands during the modern observational record, and limited data make it difficult to estimate the probabilities of rare events or how they might change.
- [5]
The Columbia Tropical Cyclone Hazard model, created by co-authors Chia-Ying Lee and Suzana Camargo at Columbia University, generated thousands of years' worth of synthetic tropical cyclones from atmospheric and oceanic conditions simulated by seven global climate models.
- [6]
The researchers examined storms passing within 300 nautical miles (556 kilometers) of Hawai'i and analyzed their frequency, intensity, tracks, duration, speed and landfalls.
- [7]
The team compared historical, midcentury and late-century climates, and the future simulations use a high-emissions scenario.
- [8]
The team separated storms occurring during El Niño and La Niña years to examine whether the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Hawai'i tropical cyclone hazard could change in a warmer future.
- [9]
Historically, El Niño tends to favor stronger and more frequent tropical cyclones near Hawai'i compared with La Niña.
- [10]
In the late-century simulations, the differences between El Niño and La Niña become less pronounced, particularly for tropical cyclone wind hazard.
- [11]
In the late-century simulations the spatial pattern of storm tracks also changes: during El Niño, tropical cyclone tracks shift southwest of the Hawaiian Islands relative to La Niña conditions.
- [12]
"This research addresses a hazard that is rare in Hawai'i but can have enormous consequences when it occurs," said Nicole Murray, the lead author.
- [13]
"That means climate change may alter not only the overall tropical cyclone hazard facing Hawai'i, but also how climate patterns such as El Niño and La Niña relate to when and where that hazard is greatest," said Christina Karamperidou, co-author and SOEST atmospheric sciences professor.
- [14]
Nicole Murray was a postdoctoral researcher in the SOEST Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the time of the research and is now a scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory.
- [15]
Tropical cyclone risk is not simply a question of how many hurricanes make landfall; storms passing near the islands can produce damaging winds, extreme rainfall, flooding, landslides, high surf and other cascading hazards.
- [16]
"Hurricane Lala passed just south of the islands in August and produced severe flooding and damaging winds across Hawai'i," said Christina Karamperidou.
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Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- phys.orgWarmer climate could reshape hurricane risk and its relationship with El Niño around Hawai'i
1 article · October 14, 2026
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