Growth lines and isotopes in one giant clam shell from Jiigurru put northern Great Barrier Reef summers around 1800 at 0.9 to 1.2C cooler than in 1995-2015. Winters were nearly unchanged, so this site's warming has come mostly in the hot season, on the evidence of one animal.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives35
- Confidence50
Forecasters expect this year's record-breaking El Nino to strengthen further before it peaks around December. The physics shows which way rainfall moves in Indonesia and coastal Peru, but it does not say how severe the drought or flooding will be.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
El Niño kept the Atlantic free of hurricanes through September for the first time in reliable records by holding wind shear high over warm water. The mark could still fall if the National Hurricane Center upgrades Tropical Storm Fay in its post-season review.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Science News reports the El Nino region's daily sea surface anomaly hit 3.08 C on September 21, past the 3.02 C mark set in November 2015. NOAA's preferred index still ranks the 1997-98 event stronger, leaving two analogues in play for the coming seasons.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 18%
- Operator
- Operator 54%
- Investor
- Investor 28%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence68
A study in PNAS puts the biggest constraint on cocoa yields on heavy rain while trees are flowering, and the researcher who led it says that makes the risk forecastable. The response it calls for is drainage work on smallholder farms.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives35
- Confidence55
Coral chemistry from the eastern tropical Pacific has finally put a number on how much warming has strengthened El Niño. The natural-forcing alternative fails the test the same authors ran.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 47%
- Operator
- Operator 41%
- Investor
- Investor 12%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives58
- Confidence74
For the first time, a WMO update on El Nino carries almost no hedge about the tropical Pacific over the next two seasons. The harder question, what any given basin actually gets, sits in a second document.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives65
- Confidence58
The Met Office will commit to the sign of the disruption, not its address. The rice loss is already booked to a marketing year that begins after the event ends.
Reality
- Evidence61
- Adoption47
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives34
- Confidence56
The Met Office expects the tropical Pacific above 3C in November, and one aggregated forecast says 3.9C. The global temperature consequence lands in 2027, which is still a planning cycle away.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives42
- Confidence61
Forecasters see this El Nino peaking well above the 2015 event and pushing 2027 to roughly 1.76C above preindustrial. That is a decade of trend warming delivered in one year.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption44
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives28
- Confidence55