Topic
Modeling frameworks that project future climate conditions, such as warming, ice loss or drought, under different emissions and policy pathways.
Ghent and Campinas researchers found about 75% of tropical forest area had six or more months of simultaneous drought and heat during the 2023-24 El Niño. Their models make that exposure typical within 20 years unless emissions are cut, with the Amazon at greatest risk.
Reality
Both reports released this month treat passing 1.5°C as the working assumption, and the account of them from one of the Canadian authors gives the 5°C national figure without naming an emissions scenario or a range.
Reality
Estimates of the chance AI kills everyone run from zero to more than 95 per cent, so the column sets that range beside risks whose numbers come from counted lottery tickets, WHO death tolls, climate model ensembles and asteroid surveys.
Reality
The Global Glacier Extinction Explorer turns a Nature Climate Change assessment into per-glacier disappearance windows under different warming levels. One Swiss glacier has already vanished inside the window its models drew.
Reality
One 2025 study puts smoke-attributable US deaths at 41,380 a year for the 2010s and 71,420 by 2050. That turns a summer emergency into a line item public health and workplace planners carry every year.
Reality