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US central bank described as no longer a major buyer of Treasuries, with rate expectations shifting after tame producer price data.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
Naked Capitalism says Bessent has moved to contain longer-dated Treasury yields, against the Fed. Duration holders should care more about that than about another Iran sanctions threat.
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A Forbes Tech Council column argues enterprise AI sovereignty clauses fix where data sits and say nothing about whose model gets smarter. The author also sells the remedy.
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A new scenario model puts household numbers on the fiscal path: $53,000 in extra lifetime mortgage payments for a 2031 buyer, and a $705 monthly hole for retirees by 2033.
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The 2017 order carried a $137 million fine and years of compliance duties. It was the last FX enforcement action still standing; the other five banks were released between 2020 and 2023.
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More than $3 billion of short liquidations did the heavy lifting, with a $517 million ETF day alongside it. That fuel is spent, so the next leg has to be bought.
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The 30-year fixed rate slipped two basis points to 6.65%, its second straight weekly decline. It is still seven basis points above where it sat a year ago.
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Unemployment and layoffs are low, yet consumer sentiment is worse than in the COVID period. One measurable fact explains the gap between the dashboard and the mood.
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Thirty-year Treasuries near 5.3%, a level unseen since 2007, are tightening conditions without help from the Fed. People who sat beside Kevin Warsh say he will notice and not react.
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Andrew Levin argues that a portfolio holding roughly 30% of Treasury notes and bonds and over 40% of agency MBS needs case-specific runoff, not a uniform exit.
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A record long-bond yield in the US and decade-high yields in Germany and France are the week's real story. Mortgages moved first; AI capex plans are next in line for scrutiny.
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The 10-year sits at 4.696% and the 30-year at 5.284%, both through the markers the Treasury Secretary was defending. The long end is pricing credibility, not the next rate decision.
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Pending home sales fell 2.3% in July to the second-lowest reading on record, and the West hit an outright record low. A fourth year at the bottom is not a cycle you wait out.
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Small importers are carrying the tariff cases while the largest buyers route objections through trade associations. The plaintiffs setting your cost baseline answer to nobody's risk model.
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Foreign official holdings are down to $3.78 trillion, the lowest in over two years, while private foreign holdings sit at a record $5.52 trillion. Japan supplied over half the selling.
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The average that capped the 2022 bear market is overhead again near $63.2k, and this week's Fed minutes and Japan data decide whether the level holds any authority.
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The Bank of Japan held at 1% after raising from 0.75% in June. With 2.5% inflation projected against 0.6% growth, its own forecast says the tightening is not finished.
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Odds on a September Fed hold went from near coin-toss to about 67% in four weeks, and the dollar index slid to 99.5. Any plan carrying a July FX assumption is now stale.
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Wolf Street's July update shows Austin, Las Vegas and Nashville leading year-over-year declines while AI money bids up San Francisco's middle third. Regional exposure is now the whole trade.
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The FOMC held at 3.50%-3.75%, but a quarter of the voting committee wanted 25 basis points immediately. Portfolios still built around the December 2025 cut are on the wrong side of that argument.
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The bank's own estimate is 25%. The more useful detail is that the market's hike probability travelled from 12% to 45% on oil headlines, not on inflation prints.
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Headline CPI eased a tenth to 3.4% and core held at 2.5%. Neither number pays for a nine-percent monthly rally; the consensus that the Fed does nothing does.
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A July auction took $13bn at 5.163% with bid-to-cover of 2.64, dead on the ten-auction average. Duration keeps getting bought, just never at a better price.
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BMO's Jennifer Lee expects no easing until late 2027, a timeline that would carry Kevin Warsh's first 17 months as Fed chair without a single cut.
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Home Depot, Target and Walmart report on consecutive mornings into a thin data calendar. Their guidance, not the macro releases, is where tariff pass-through shows up first.
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The University of Michigan's share of consumers expecting income to outpace inflation has fallen from 18% in December 2024 to 8%. Plans that assume full cost pass-through look fragile.
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Long yields in the US, UK and euro area hit month highs in mid-August 2026 with policy rates unchanged. A duration hedge built around the Fed is pointed at the wrong variable.
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The 30-year auction cleared at the highest yield since 2001 and the 10-year at the highest since 2007. Funding cost, not demand, is the constraint, and it is already moving FX policy.
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The first joint US-Japan yen intervention in three decades moved the rate about seven yen and handed much of it back, leaving the carry trade as the live risk.
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July 2026 CPI printed at 3.4%, in line. BlackRock's fixed-income CIO argues the residual sits in shelter and services, where the policy rate has little grip.
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Leveraged funds cut net yen shorts from nearly 138,000 contracts to about 59,500 in roughly five weeks. The carry trade's risk premium has been re-priced by policy, not by rates.
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Zerohash's national trust application came back without a decision, the only such return in the agency's recent record. Applicants should now budget for outcome number three.
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Treasury's $25 billion long bond sale drew the highest yield since 2001, a day after the priciest 10-year auction since 2007. Demand showed up, but only at a price.
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