Six banks and two inflation reports will test the S&P 500's 29.6% earnings growth

The 29.6% describes third-quarter results that are only now being reported ^[1][3], so a chief executive's remark on diesel or funding costs cannot change it. It can change what investors expect for the quarters after. According to CNBC, citing FactSet's John Butters, that growth would be a fourth consecutive quarter above 25% ^[1].

Quartz's report says what executives say about higher fuel and borrowing costs is likely to draw more investor attention than the reported figures ^[12]. Brian Leonard, portfolio manager of the Keeley Gabelli Small Cap Dividend Fund, told CNBC: "Can this company withstand what's happening? Pass along, continue to grow margins, and the future is going to be better than the most recent past," ^[13]. His test looks forward.

Both sources were written on Monday morning, a day before JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citi report ^[2], so neither contains any bank commentary on costs.

The week can go several ways. A benign set of bank reports and inflation prints tests nothing. Should the banks describe funding-cost pressure, the forward view gets marked down while the 29.6% stays put. A hot September CPI on Wednesday or PPI on Thursday ^[4] moves stocks on the data, whatever any bank said.

We think the 29.6% survives the week and the exposure sits in forward estimates. The counter-case is that the two are linked: if executives say higher fuel and borrowing costs are squeezing margins, analysts lower the next quarter's numbers and investors pay less for this quarter's. We would be wrong on the first point if the tracking figure fell below 25% as reports arrived, ending the run of above-25% quarters ^[1]. That is a 4.6-point drop ^[9].