Fed survey finds nearly one in five US families behind on debt payments

The $1,700 that PYMNTS reports for the lowest quarter of households is 55% below the $3,800 of 2022 ^[6][21], and roughly 127 times smaller than the $215,900 real median net worth of all families ^[3][25]. The mean sits at $1.24 million, about 5.7 times that median ^[4][20]. It grew 7% in real terms ^[4], faster than the median (or rather, it pulled further ahead of a median that also rose) ^[3].

The Fed's own description is milder than the delinquency figures. "Against this backdrop of moderate economic expansion and elevated inflation, the 2025 SCF indicates that while most families experienced moderate increases in income and net worth, an increasing subset of families appear to have been experiencing financial stress," the report said ^[9]. The period had GDP growth near 2.5% a year and CPI inflation averaging 3.6% ^[10]. The share behind on payments rose by roughly 8 points, to about 1.7 times its 2022 level ^[19], and Quartz put it at a level not reached since the 2010 survey, when the US was emerging from the Great Recession ^[5].

Neither source ties the 20% to the bottom quarter, so the step from a $1,700 cushion to late payments is inference ^[1]. Quartz cites a separate analysis that found delinquency rates climbing across income levels, in both the lowest-income and the highest-income ZIP codes ^[24]. In our view that points to a problem wider than the poorest households. A thin cushion at the bottom would raise the loss on each late account, and delinquency at higher incomes would raise the number of late accounts.

Strained households are not necessarily buying less. PYMNTS Intelligence research found that budget pressure does not always translate to smaller purchases, and that consumers short of cash have instead shopped differently, "with greater use of online grocery channels and stronger preferences for certain merchants" ^[13]. The share of households using buy now, pay later rose from 7% to 12% over the survey interval ^[14].

The counter-thesis is that 2025 is a peak. Median net housing value rose to $230,000 from $218,900 ^[15], homeownership held near 66% ^[16], and card balances of $1.26 trillion in the second quarter of 2026 sit 1.6% below the $1.28 trillion record set at the end of 2025 ^[17][22].

We think the stress is real and wider than the bottom quarter. FHA mortgage delinquency, at levels last seen around 2012 ^[12], is the reading that would settle it: if it turns down while card balances stay under the record, we are wrong.