Won strengthens to 1,331.4 per dollar, a level last seen in October 2024
South Korea's won closed at 1,331.4 per dollar, its strongest since Oct. 2, 2024, after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no signal on October's meeting. The 13.2-won gain came a day after KOSPI fell more than 7%, so how long it holds depends on foreign money.
The Investor · Invest desk
Key figures: the won closed at 1,331.4 per dollar, its strongest since Oct. 2, 2024, against 1,344.6 per dollar at the previous session's close. The dollar index fell from the low 102 range to 101.813 during the session.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Won's close, strongest since Oct. 2, 2024 | 1,331.4 won per dollar | 1 | |
| Previous session's close | 1,344.6 won per dollar | 11 | |
| Dollar index (DXY), low during the session | 101.813 index | down from the low 102 range | 9 |
What happened
- Traders responded to Warsh's IMF remarks in Bangkok by raising expectations that the Fed holds its key rate steady this month.
- Foreign investors snapped an eight-day selling streak, buying a net 341.3 billion won ($256 million) of local shares in the regular session.
- Earlier in the day, U.S. inflation data came in above expectations, lifting the dollar and concerns about further Fed tightening, according to Seoul Economic Daily.
- The dollar index then fell from the low 102 range to 101.813 during the session after Warsh spoke.
Why it matters
- What doesn't add up contradiction Yonhap News Agency reports foreigners as net buyers by the regular-session close, while Seoul Economic Daily says only that their net selling narrowed, and the two imply opposite signs for the dollar demand that follows share sales.
- Who's exposed exposure The won's gain leans on a hold that Warsh declined to endorse, so a hawkish outcome at the late-October meeting would hit a currency that has just repriced for the opposite.
- Who has to decide decision Exporters who sold dollars into the early weakness face the same choice at 1,331.4: keep selling into strength or wait for the Fed's October decision.
Work back from the quote and the won closed Thursday at 1,344.6 per dollar [11], so Friday's 13.2-won gain was 0.98% [12]. That is a large daily move to hang on a speech in which, according to Seoul Economic Daily, Warsh said inflation is not a phenomenon unique to the United States and that global conditions since the September FOMC meeting had largely developed as expected [4].
The only line that touches October directly is a quotation. "In September the Fed made clear it intends to achieve price stability and withdrew some accommodation," Warsh said, adding that he does not prejudge the meeting set for the 27th and 28th [5]. In our view that is no new information. A chair who says the Fed withdrew accommodation last month and will not prejudge the next meeting has given traders no extra reason to expect a hold. The price moved on the absence of a hawkish line.
The equity side is thinner than the currency move suggests. A 2.05% rebound to 5,668.05 [3] implies a Thursday close of about 5,554 [13]. Because KOSPI had plunged more than 7% that day [6], the two sessions together leave it more than 5% below its level before the plunge [14].
Our view is that the won is trading a relief rally and a first day of foreign buying, and that the level is fragile going into the Fed meeting. The counter-thesis has some force: if exporters keep selling dollars on weakness and foreign buying continues, the won can hold a stronger level whatever the Fed does. Two other outcomes fit the same facts. A hold may already be in the price and give the won nothing more, or a hawkish surprise could send the rate back through Thursday's 1,344.6 [11].
We would be wrong if the won stays near 1,331 after a hawkish decision, or if foreign investors keep buying for several sessions while the dollar index recovers.
What to watch
- Whether foreign investors stay net buyers of KOSPI shares after Friday; a return to net selling brings back the custody-related dollar demand.
- The Fed's decision at the meeting on the 27th and 28th, and whether the hold expectation Yonhap News Agency reports survives until then.
- Whether the dollar index stays below the low 102 range after touching 101.813 on Friday.
Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence72
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
The won was quoted at 1,331.4 won per dollar at 3:30 p.m. on Friday, up 13.2 won from the previous session's close, its strongest level since Oct. 2, 2024.
- [2]
Speaking at the IMF meeting in Bangkok, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh gave little indication of the Fed's policy direction at its upcoming meeting, and traders increased expectations that the Fed may hold its key rate steady this month.
- [3]
The benchmark KOSPI rebounded 2.05 percent to close at 5,668.05.
- [4]
At a dialogue session during the IMF's annual meetings, Warsh said inflation is not a phenomenon unique to the United States and that the Fed has made clear it intends to achieve price stability; he also said global economic conditions since the September FOMC meeting had largely developed as expected.
- [5]
"In September the Fed made clear it intends to achieve price stability and withdrew some accommodation," Warsh said, adding that he does not prejudge the FOMC's regular meeting set for the 27th and 28th.
- [6]
The KOSPI had plunged more than 7% a day earlier, before rebounding on Friday.
- [7]
The won-dollar exchange rate closed at 1,331.4 won on the 16th in the Seoul foreign exchange market, down 13.2 won from the previous session.
- [8]
In the morning, U.S. inflation data came in above market expectations, highlighting dollar strength and concerns about further Fed tightening.
- [9]
The dollar index (DXY) fell from the low 102 range after Warsh's remarks and dropped to 101.813 during the session.
- [10]
Dollar selling by exporters weighed on the exchange rate; as the rate rose early in the session, exporters appeared to step in with dollar sales, capping the upside.
- [11]
The won's previous close was 1,344.6 per dollar.
- [12]
Friday's gain of 13.2 won is about 0.98% of the previous close.
- [13]
KOSPI's previous close was about 5,554.
- [14]
After a drop of more than 7% and a 2.05% rebound, KOSPI is more than 5% below its level before the drop.
- [15]
Foreign investors snapped an eight-day selling streak in local stocks, buying a net 341.3 billion won (US$256 million) of shares in the regular trading session.
- [16]
Net selling of local shares by foreign investors narrowed from the previous day, easing custody-related dollar buying that occurs when proceeds from share sales are converted into foreign currency.
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Sources
2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- en.sedaily.comWon Jumps 13 Won Against Dollar After Fed Chair's IMF Remarks
1 article · October 16, 2026
- en.yna.co.krS. Korean won advances to 2-year high on Fed chief's outlook, foreign inflows
1 article · October 16, 2026
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