InvestIndependently confirmed2 publishers2 min readPublished
Economists polled by the WSJ see the 10-year at 5.1% by year-end, over the CBO's 4.3% decade ceiling
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect the 10-year Treasury yield to ease only to 5.1% by year-end and 4.8% a year later, Semafor reported. Growth and inflation forecasts barely moved, so the case for high yields rests on the supply of capital.
The Investor · Invest desk
Economists surveyed by the WSJ see the 10-year yield at around 4.8% 12 months after year-end. Pimco's Daniel Ivascyn said the yield is currently 5.26%. Carl Tannenbaum expects it near 5.2% through 2028. Allen Sinai said it could spike to 6% next year.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSJ survey forecast, 12 months after year-end | 4.8% around | 1 | |
| Now, per Pimco's Ivascyn | 5.26% | 6 | |
| Tannenbaum, through 2028 | 5.2% near | 12 | |
| Sinai, could spike to | 6% next year | 11 |
What happened
- The Journal's survey covered 71 economists, polled from the 2nd through the 7th, and the results were reported on the 11th, according to Seoul Economic Daily.
- Pimco chief investment officer Daniel Ivascyn told the Financial Times on the 11th that the 10-year yield stands at 5.26%.
- The Congressional Budget Office said in February that the 10-year Treasury yield would not exceed 4.3% over the next decade.
- Carl Tannenbaum, Northern Trust's chief economist, expects the yield to hold near 5.2% through 2028 and ease to 5% at the end of 2029.
Why it matters
- cost Tannenbaum's 5.2% path is 90 basis points over the CBO ceiling, or $900,000 a year in extra interest on each $100 million refinanced.
- decision A plan underwritten on the CBO's 4.3% has to be re-run at 4.8% to 5.1%, an extra 0.5 to 0.8 points of hurdle, and the OMB's mid-3% path is further out of reach.
- constraint Oil relief is already in the poll: it has WTI falling from about $90 to $88 by year-end and under $80 by July, and still holds the yield at 4.8% a year later.
The poll's yields fall more slowly than its inflation. From today's 5.26% [6] the path sits 16 basis points lower at year-end and 46 lower at the end of 2027 [18], while the economists' CPI goes from 3.5% in December to 2.3% at the end of 2027 [16]. Across that last year the yield gives up 0.3 points and CPI gives up 1.2, so the yield's margin over CPI widens from 1.6 points to 2.5 [21]. The comparison is crude, because it sets a ten-year yield against one year's CPI.
The explanations on offer concern capital. In a recent note cited by Semafor, the economist David Skilling wrote that "state capitalism ... is a much more capex-intensive regime" [3] just as "the global economy is moving from a savings-abundant environment towards one in which available capital is becoming scarcer" [4]. Seoul Economic Daily supplies the demand-side version from Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, who said "Investors remain uneasy about the large and growing U.S. debt burden" and, in the next sentence, "A broader buildout of AI infrastructure could lift growth expectations and demand for capital." [5] We think the two describe one claim from opposite ends: more projects competing for less savings.
We would budget around 5% for the next two years, and the poll itself shows where that goes wrong. Allen Sinai of Decision Economics said the yield could spike to 6% next year, 74 basis points above today's level, and stay above 5% for the rest of the decade [c8, d5]. Ivascyn told the Financial Times it could also rise further and sharply: "From a short-term trading perspective, it is clearly possible for that to happen," he said [7]. He also tied some of the recent moves to negative technical factors and to loss-cutting by platform hedge funds and other leveraged investors [8], and in our view pressure of that kind fades once the forced selling ends.
Rajeev Dhawan of Georgia State University sits on the other side. "Over the past six months, the U.S. has added an average of 66,000 jobs a month, but almost none of them were in the highest-paying fields such as finance and tech," he said [13]. He predicted the Fed would pivot to rate cuts once it recognizes that employment is not as strong as it believes [14].
The call is wrong if the 10-year is below 4.8% by next June while CPI is tracking the survey's 2.6% [16]. That would put the extra margin over inflation down to positioning.
What to watch
- Monthly payroll reports against Dhawan's 66,000-a-month average, since his case for Fed cuts needs weak hiring to persist.
- Whether the 10-year closes the year at or below the poll's 5.1%, given it starts from 5.26% with leveraged selling in the mix.
- WTI against the poll's $88 at year-end and sub-$80 by July, the path behind its CPI of 2.6% in June.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence62
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal projected that US 10-year Treasury yields would decline only slightly from current levels to end the year at 5.1%, and would dip to around 4.8% 12 months later.
ReportedSupportedSource: Semafor, citing a Wall Street Journal survey of economists2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [2]
The Wall Street Journal reported on the 11th a survey of 71 economists conducted from the 2nd through the 7th.
ReportedSupportedSource: Seoul Economic Daily2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [3]
David Skilling wrote in a recent note that "state capitalism ... is a much more capex-intensive regime".
ReportedSupportedSource: David Skilling, economist, via Semafor2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [4]
Skilling wrote that "the global economy is moving from a savings-abundant environment towards one in which available capital is becoming scarcer."
ReportedSupportedSource: David Skilling, economist, via Semafor2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [5]
"Investors remain uneasy about the large and growing U.S. debt burden," Tannenbaum said. "A broader buildout of AI infrastructure could lift growth expectations and demand for capital."
ReportedSupportedSource: Carl Tannenbaum, Northern Trust2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [6]
Daniel Ivascyn, chief investment officer at Pimco, told the Financial Times on the 11th that the 10-year yield is currently at 5.26%.
- [7]
Ivascyn said the yield could rise further and sharply: "From a short-term trading perspective, it is clearly possible for that to happen," he said.
- [8]
Ivascyn said some of the moves seen in recent weeks were tied to negative technical factors and to loss-cutting by platform hedge funds and other leveraged investors, after weeks of heavy selling.
- [9]
The Congressional Budget Office said in February that the 10-year Treasury yield would not exceed 4.3% over the next decade.
- [10]
The White House Office of Management and Budget forecast that the 10-year yield would fall to the mid-3% range in the late 2020s.
- [11]
Allen Sinai, president of Decision Economics, said the 10-year yield could spike to 6% next year and projected it would remain above 5% for the rest of the decade.
- [12]
Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust, expects the 10-year yield to hold near 5.2% through 2028 before easing to 5% at the end of 2029.
- [13]
"Over the past six months, the U.S. has added an average of 66,000 jobs a month, but almost none of them were in the highest-paying fields such as finance and tech," Rajeev Dhawan said.
- [14]
Dhawan predicted the Federal Reserve would pivot to rate cuts once it recognizes that employment is not as strong as it believes.
- [15]
The Wall Street Journal noted that the forecasts for higher yields come even though projections for gross domestic product growth and inflation have changed little.
- [16]
Economists expect the consumer price index to rise 3.5% in December, 2.6% in June next year and 2.3% at the end of 2027.
ReportedSupportedSource: Seoul Economic Daily, citing the Wall Street Journal surveyView cited source - [17]
Economists project West Texas Intermediate crude, now around $90 a barrel, will end the year at $88 and drop below $80 by July next year.
ReportedSupportedSource: Seoul Economic Daily, citing the Wall Street Journal surveyView cited source - [18]
From the current 5.26% yield, the survey's year-end 5.1% is 16 basis points lower and the 4.8% a year later is 46 basis points lower.
- [19]
The survey's year-end 5.1% is 80 basis points above the CBO's 4.3% ceiling, and the 4.8% a year later is 50 basis points above it.
- [20]
Tannenbaum's 5.2% is 90 basis points above the CBO's 4.3%, equal to $900,000 a year of extra interest on each $100 million of debt refinanced at that rate.
- [21]
Between year-end and the end of 2027 the survey's yield falls 0.3 points (5.1% to 4.8%) while CPI falls 1.2 points (3.5% to 2.3%), so the yield's margin over CPI widens from 1.6 points to 2.5 points.
- [22]
Sinai's 6% is 74 basis points above the current 5.26% yield.
Sources
2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- en.sedaily.comU.S. 10-Year Yield Could Hit 6%, Economists Warn
1 article · October 12, 2026
- semafor.comUS, European yields unlikely to fall soon, economists say
1 article · October 12, 2026
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Topics
- US Treasury yieldsFollow
- AI Infrastructure Investment ThesisFollow
- US fiscal deficit and national debtFollow
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Entities
- The Wall Street JournalFollow
- Rajeev DhawanFollow
- Congressional Budget OfficeFollow
- Daniel IvascynFollow
- Decision EconomicsFollow
- Seoul Economic Daily (en.sedaily.com)Follow
- Carl TannenbaumFollow
- White House Office of Management and BudgetFollow
- David SkillingFollow
- Northern TrustFollow
- Pacific Investment Management Co.Follow
- SemaforFollow
- Allen SinaiFollow
- Federal ReserveFollow