With 15 of 33 major central banks hiking, Cleveland Fed's Hammack argues for smaller, quicker increases
Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack, a voter this year, said Monday she prefers smaller, faster rate adjustments after September's quarter-point hike. Cryptopolitan counts 15 of 33 major central banks tightening in six months, a 45% share.
The Investor · Invest desk
Key figures: 16 of 18 September meeting participants projected at least one additional rate increase; the federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4%; the monthly change in US payrolls in September was 29,000, the weakest month of 2026; 54 central banks have raised rates so far in 2026.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Participants projecting at least one more rate increase | 16 of 18 | 5 | |
| Fed funds target range, low end | 3.75% | target range 3.75% to 4% | 4 |
| US payroll change, September | 29,000 monthly change | 14 | |
| Central banks raising rates so far in 2026 | 54 banks | cryptopolitan.com count | 23 |
What happened
- The September increase was a unanimous 12-0 vote that put the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4%.
- Hammack stopped short of backing a hike at the Fed's Oct. 27-28 meeting, according to Bloomberg.
- Payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September, the weakest month of 2026, according to cryptopolitan.
- Cryptopolitan reports that markets do not now see a rate hike in October.
- Cryptopolitan calls the 45% share of major banks hiking the largest since 2023.
Why it matters
- decision A plan that needs rates to fall soon runs against a committee where 16 of 18 participants, about 89%, projected at least one more increase in September.
- constraint Hammack separates a reaction function from forward guidance, so a budget gets a direction and a stated logic but no meeting date to build around.
- contradiction Cryptopolitan gives August PCE inflation as 3.4% headline and 3% core in one reading and 3% on both in another, so the inflation base the Fed is reacting to is itself disputed.
Fifteen of 33 is broad but well short of the 2022 peak. In 2022 almost 95% of the major banks were raising rates [13], which on the same 33-bank base would have been about 31 [20], and cryptopolitan puts the 2011 and 2018 shares near 55% [17]. The report is the only source for the tally. Its second count, 54 central banks hiking so far in 2026 [23], covers a wider group, and the report does not reconcile it with the 33.
Hammack's case is about method. "When feasible, I generally think it's preferable to make smaller adjustments, and to do so relatively quickly, rather than to wait and risk needing a larger course correction," she said at the National Association for Business Economics meeting in Cleveland [2]. She is not new to the position. She dissented in July for a quarter-point increase alongside Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan [10], and she argued in August that more than one increase would likely be needed [18].
The committee has come to her. In July three of 12 votes, or 25%, wanted the quarter-point increase [10][21]. In September all 12 did [4]. According to Bloomberg, the shift followed the Iran war and demand tied to the artificial intelligence buildout pushing prices up [8].
The case against a long cycle sits in the same reporting. Second-quarter growth was revised up from 1.5% to 2.2% [15] while hiring slowed, so the Fed is looking at one strong series and one weak one. We think that mix slows the cycle and leaves the floor near a 4% funds rate. A payroll miss would have to overturn the September projections before anyone cuts.
We would be wrong if payrolls stay weak and the committee holds through December. Cryptopolitan says the September minutes had most policymakers expecting another hike before year-end, with timing left open [9], so a hold would contradict that. We would also be wrong if the war and AI-demand pressures fade before the next hike.
The costs are uneven. A treasurer who budgets for 4% and gets cuts has spare cash. One who budgets for cuts and gets another hike has a refinancing to fund.
What to watch
- The Fed's Oct. 27-28 decision and whether Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissent for or against a hold.
- The next payroll print after September's 29,000, and whether it keeps hiking off the table into December.
- Whether the 15-of-33 count holds up in a second tally, since cryptopolitan is the only source for it.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence64
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said Monday that she favors smaller, more frequent interest rate adjustments rather than delaying action and potentially requiring a larger move later.
- [2]
"When feasible, I generally think it's preferable to make smaller adjustments, and to do so relatively quickly, rather than to wait and risk needing a larger course correction," Hammack said in a speech at the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting in Cleveland.
- [3]
Hammack votes on Fed policy decisions this year.
- [4]
The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point in September, a unanimous 12-0 decision that brought the federal funds rate to a target range of 3.75% to 4%.
- [5]
Sixteen of 18 meeting participants at the September meeting projected at least one additional rate increase.
- [6]
Hammack stopped short of backing a rate increase at the Fed's Oct. 27-28 meeting, according to Bloomberg.
- [7]
Markets do not now see a rate hike in October.
- [8]
The Fed's September decision reflected a shared view that rising prices, fueled by the Iran war and surging demand connected to artificial intelligence buildout, required a policy response, according to Bloomberg.
- [9]
September's meeting minutes showed most policymakers anticipated another hike before December ends, with timing left open and dependent on economic conditions.
- [10]
At the Fed's July meeting the committee voted 9-3 to hold rates steady; Hammack dissented, preferring a quarter-point increase, alongside Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.
- [11]
"A reaction function is not forward guidance," Hammack said, according to Bloomberg, adding that officials should articulate the logic behind decisions while stopping short of offering firm predictions about where rates are headed.
- [12]
Among 33 major central banks, 15 have raised interest rates within the last six months, a 45% share.
- [13]
In 2022, almost 95% of the major central banks were tightening monetary policy.
- [14]
The monthly change in US payrolls in September was only 29,000, the weakest month of 2026.
- [15]
US second-quarter GDP growth was upgraded from 1.5% to 2.2%.
- [16]
The 45% share is the largest since 2023.
- [17]
The report cites a share of almost 55% seen in 2011 and 2018.
- [18]
Hammack argued in August that more than one rate increase would likely be needed to bring inflation back under control.
- [19]
16 of 18 September participants is about 89%.
- [20]
95% of a 33-bank base is about 31 banks.
- [21]
Three dissenting votes out of 12 in July is 25%.
- [22]
August PCE inflation was recorded at 3.4% annually with core at 3%; another view of the August data put both headline and core at 3%, matching July and below forecasts.
- [23]
54 central banks have raised interest rates so far in 2026.
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Sources
2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- cryptopolitan.comThe Federal Reserve is preparing for a rate hike cycle, along with the rest of the world
1 article · October 12, 2026
- qz.comCleveland Fed's Beth Hammack backs smaller, more frequent rate hikes
1 article · October 12, 2026
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Topics
- Federal Reserve Monetary PolicyFollow
- InflationFollow
- Central bank rate hikesFollow