Bitcoin's rebound stalls at $83,000, the average price its ETF holders paid

Bitcoin.com had bitcoin at $82,615 at 1:30 p.m. ET on Friday ^[5]. Decrypt had it at $82,837 ^[6]. Bitunix analysts drew their line at $82,800 ^[10], which falls between those two prints. To make another test of $85,000 to $87,000, they said, the price has to reclaim that level, and open interest has to recover at a measured pace while ETF outflows moderate ^[10].

Only the first of Bitunix's three conditions is about price ^[10]. Decrypt's Wednesday and Thursday figures add up to $728.9 million ^[22], enough by themselves to account for Bitcoin.com's weekly total ^[2]. Neither report includes a Friday figure. The funds took in money steadily from late September into October and have now posted net outflows in three of the last four days ^[4]. Their holders were redeeming all the way down to Thursday's low ^[3]. The outflows came as the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32%, with Fed minutes pointing to another hike by year-end, Decrypt reported ^[18].

Some of Friday's buying came from traders with no choice. Short positions made up about 69% of the day's liquidations ^[25], and a liquidated short is closed by buying the coin back. Bitcoin.com, citing analysts, reported that net outflows combined with declining open interest suggest the brief recovery in spot demand was not enough to absorb the selling ^[12]. On the two days before, the forced selling hit longs ^[13]. "Bitcoin-specific liquidations reinforce that interpretation, with approximately $220.17 million in long positions liquidated against $45.71 million in shorts, a ratio of roughly 4.8 to 1," Bitunix wrote in a note ^[13]. "The figures indicate that leveraged bullish positions bore the brunt of the latest decline," the note said ^[14].

At Decrypt's $82,837, bitcoin sat about 0.2% under the funds' average cost ^[23]. The move from Thursday's low to Friday's peak was about 3.9% ^[24], and it topped out at $83,443 on Decrypt's daily candle ^[9]. Every sharp rally around $83,000 met an equally swift sell-off, Bitcoin.com reported ^[7]. Deans also called the zone the prior higher-high level and the first test for the bounce ^[8].

Bitunix also sketched the downside. Repeated rejection below $82,800, followed by a break under the recent low near $80,400, would shift attention to a $79,700 to $77,000 demand zone, and to $70,500 to $72,900 if selling intensifies ^[20]. Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, priced 40% odds on $77,500 in October and 24% on $75,000 ^[21]. A separate weekly market put 49% odds on a finish above $87,500, according to Decrypt ^[17].

The counter-case comes from Decrypt's charts. The daily ADX reads 37.9, above the 25 that confirms a trend, and the buyers' directional line is above the sellers', so by that measure the trend is still bullish ^[15]. On the four-hour chart, though, price remains under the 50-period exponential moving average ^[9].

I think the evidence supports the narrower reading. Friday's bounce leaned on forced short buying and carried the price up to the funds' breakeven, while fund holders were selling through Thursday ^[25][23][3]. That view is wrong if bitcoin closes a day above the September high of $87,354.33, the ceiling Decrypt says bulls need ^[19]. That high is about 5.5% above Friday's price ^[26].