Anthropic's Wednesday Q3 figures will help size a possible $2 trillion listing

The $50 billion OpenAI gave its investors sits $20 billion below the $70 billion that had been widely reported ^[13], or 28.6% of the higher figure ^[14]. According to a person familiar with the matter, the updated number stripped out revenue from cloud partners and was not an indication of changing demand ^[8]. The confusion that dragged down semiconductor stocks and the Nasdaq last week ^[6] was therefore a dispute over what counts as revenue.

Anthropic's version of that problem is unresolved. CNBC wrote that it is unclear whether Anthropic will account for sales the same way and include partner revenue ^[20]. The valuation depends on the answer. People familiar with the plans put a possible listing at $2 trillion, based on revenue that could top $100 billion by the end of this year ^[21], which is a multiple of 20 ^[15] (the article does not say whether the $100 billion is annual revenue or a run rate). Remove the same 28.6% that separated OpenAI's two figures and $100 billion becomes $71.4 billion ^[16], and the multiple becomes about 28 ^[17]. That is an illustration. Nothing in the sources says Anthropic's partner share is the same size as OpenAI's.

We think the Wednesday figures matter to chip stocks mainly through comparability. If Anthropic states plainly whether partner revenue is in or out, the number is a data point. If it does not, the market has a second round of last week's confusion. The counter-thesis is that definitions are the smaller factor: CNBC expects the figures to give investors a more accurate snapshot of growth and profitability ^[5], and a weak snapshot would hurt AI names whatever the accounting.

Cryptobriefing quotes prediction-market pricing, from a venue it did not disclose ^[24], that gives a 68.5% chance of an IPO by December 31 ^[23]. That leaves 31.5% for no listing this year ^[25], against Reuters's report of a November listing that people familiar with the plans could not confirm ^[19]. The same pricing puts 26% on a market capitalisation between $1.75 trillion and $2.0 trillion ^[22], a band whose top edge is the $2 trillion figure in circulation ^[21].

Anthropic has chosen a closed room over a public filing. It filed confidentially with the SEC earlier this year and has not made its S-1 financials public ^[18]. In our view that limits how far Wednesday's figures travel to what attendees repeat. We would be wrong on definitions if a clearly labelled figure, with partner revenue stated either way, still moved chip stocks, because the level of AI-lab revenue would then matter to them and not only its definition. We would be wrong on reach if the figures never leave the room.