Price decides whether Hanmi's Eppe takes share from Mounjaro and Wegovy

At iM Securities' estimate of roughly 110,000 won a month, Eppe would cost at most 55 percent of Wegovy's entry price of more than 200,000 won for four weeks ^[7][6][16]. Wegovy sells in four-week supplies, so a year is 13 purchases: at least 2.6 million won, against about 1.32 million won for Eppe ^[17]. That forecast is close to half. The line an industry source drew for Korea JoongAng Daily is looser. "Pricing Eppe above the mid-100,000 won range could put it at a competitive disadvantage," the source said ^[1]. The source added that a gap of only 20,000 to 30,000 won from Wegovy's price would leave customers little incentive to choose Eppe ^[1]. At the midpoint of that range, 150,000 won is about 75 percent of Wegovy's entry price ^[18]. Hanmi has not announced a price ^[5].

Eppe has to sell on the discount. Against the incumbents' pivotal trials, its average weight loss is about 61 percent of Wegovy's and 43 percent of Mounjaro's, from a shorter trial with a different design ^[19][3]. At 55 percent of Wegovy's price, Eppe's cost per percentage point of weight lost would be about 10 percent below Wegovy's on those headline numbers ^[23].

Any share Eppe wins has to come from the two leaders. On Iqvia's first-quarter figures, Mounjaro held about 72 percent of uninsured obesity-drug sales and Wegovy about 23 percent ^[22]. GLP-1 injections took 95.1 percent of the market ^[2]. Take out the two leaders and every other GLP-1 injection combined sold roughly 1 billion won in the quarter ^[20].

The more plausible way in is after Mounjaro. Some users have floated losing weight on Mounjaro first and then switching to the cheaper Eppe to keep it off, Korea JoongAng Daily reported ^[15]. "Given the cost of these drugs, [taking Mounjaro first before switching to Eppe] could be a viable approach," said Oh Sang-woo, a professor of family medicine at Dongguk University Ilsan Hospital ^[9]. "Until recently, it was popular to lose weight with Wegovy at first, then switch to the oral weight-loss drug Qsymia to keep it off," he said ^[9].

If Hanmi launches near iM's 110,000 won, Eppe has a case as the maintenance drug. If it prices above about 150,000 won, the industry source's own test says the incentive is gone ^[1][18]. The third possibility is that the field moves past it: Eli Lilly's eloralintide and tirzepatide combination reached up to 23.3 percent weight loss over 48 weeks in a Phase 2b trial ^[12]. The report does not say how often Eppe is dosed, so this record cannot place it on convenience.

I think the forecast price wins Eppe a maintenance niche and little of Mounjaro's first-line business. The case against that view rests on the patients who quit over cost. If a drug at half the price keeps them on treatment from the start, Eppe could take first-line patients too. A launch at 150,000 won or more that still wins share from Wegovy would prove the price test wrong.