US spot bitcoin ETFs took in about $2.39 billion from September 21 to 25, yet CryptoQuant's 30-day estimate of spot demand was still negative on October 1. Fund subscriptions alone cannot show that the rally has buyers beyond the ETF channel.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption50
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence58
U.S. spot XRP ETFs stretched their inflow streak to 12 weeks on Oct. 6 yet held $97 million less than investors had put in, according to Sosovalue data. One overnight drop in XRP's price outweighed the day's $3.14 million net more than 20 times.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust lost $201.89 million to redemptions on October 6, the whole of a $202 million net outflow from US spot Ethereum ETFs. The other Ethereum funds were roughly flat that day, so the selling came from one fund's clients while the claimed move into Bitcoin went unmeasured.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Grayscale's ZCSH, the first US spot Zcash ETF, lost $93.56 million to outflows in one week, leaving $212.56 million of net inflows since its August launch. Its assets fell further, to about $751 million from a September peak as high as $979 million, with ZEC's price accounting for much of the drop.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 20%
- Investor
- Investor 73%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence65
BlackRock's IBIT took in $195.6 million on a day all US spot Bitcoin ETFs together netted $102.7 million, so the other funds sold a net $92.9 million. Over 30 days its $1.57 billion is just over half the category's $2.99 billion, so its rivals are still gathering money.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption70
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives35
- Confidence50
Nine sessions of buying since August 17 pulled $1.42 billion into US spot Ethereum funds, and $1.02 billion of it landed in one BlackRock product, which makes this a distribution story before it is a conviction story.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption50
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives35
- Confidence65
Bitcoin's spot funds gave back $201.9 million on Friday, four-fifths of it from two sponsors, while ether's kept taking money into a book sitting barely 7% above what its buyers have paid in. That is a thin cushion for a 10-day streak.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 8%
- Operator
- Operator 17%
- Investor
- Investor 75%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption70
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence68
Fidelity and BlackRock supplied about 97% of the $433 million that US spot bitcoin ETFs took in on September 18, and the week they rescued still finished at plus $6.2 million, worth about 77 bitcoin.
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption76
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives48
- Confidence70
September 3 brought $730.9 million and September 18 brought $433 million, so the other eleven sessions of the month netted a combined outflow near $850.3 million against a category holding about $102.5 billion.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption70
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
Individuals net sold 459.8 billion won across five semiconductor ETFs in the first eleven days of September and put 90.1 billion won into the gold, nuclear, battery and power funds credited with the rotation.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
ETHA's $149m on September 11 was nearly 69% of the day's $216m sector inflow, but its share of August's $1.75bn was closer to 57%, and the $13bn cumulative figure is being measured against a sector asset total.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption61
- Hype gap+31
- Incentives56
- Confidence44
The numbers in the one write-up available do not agree with each other. Even the smallest of them says the marginal ETF dollar goes active now, and it arrives in a cheaper vehicle.
Reality
- Evidence22
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives62
- Confidence28