Hanmi Pharmaceutical's Eppe could launch in Korea before year-end at an estimated 150,000 won for four weeks, 45% below Mounjaro's cheapest listing. Lilly won about 85% of the market at a higher price than Wegovy, so Novo, which has cut once already, is the likelier incumbent to cut again.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence40
Japan's obesity society warned cosmetic GLP-1 users of side-effect risks, as 35 of about 950 Mounjaro side-effect reports involved dieting or cosmetic use. The health ministry separately said the drugs should not be used casually as weight-loss pills.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Korea's grey channel for weight-loss drugs now dwarfs the licensed one by case count, and a foreign web price that domestic prescriptions cannot match is doing the work.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives40
- Confidence62
The FDA is investigating whether GLP-1 drugs cause sudden vision loss, and the New Jersey filings number in the dozens. The market those drugs sell into is projected at $92 billion this year.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives62
- Confidence42
More than 90 New Jersey suits and dozens more against Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly turn on a warning the FDA has not written while four other jurisdictions added theirs. Denmark's payouts are the only money that has moved so far.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives65
- Confidence45
A national survey of 27,741 adults reports 1.9 times the depression among prescribed weight-loss drug users, and 4.2 times the suicidal ideation among those who regained weight. The exposed group is 3% of the sample.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption66
- Hype gap+41
- Incentives44
- Confidence33
The runners-up behind Lilly and Novo are consolidating around a few late-stage assets. Readouts starting next year, not messaging, will decide who takes share.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives66
- Confidence36
A Cambridge mouse study locates the GIP paradox in anatomy: agonists act through the brainstem, antagonists release a hypothalamic brake. Combination design becomes a targeting question.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives62
- Confidence50