Korea approves Hanmi's homegrown obesity shot after a trial showing 9% weight loss in 40 weeks

Next to the rivals' published results, Hanmi's 40-week figure is about 60% of the 14.9% that semaglutide, Wegovy's ingredient, produced over 68 weeks. It is about 43% of the 20.9% tirzepatide reached at its top dose over 72 weeks ^[8][15]. For the trial's average patient, efpeglenatide's result works out to roughly 8 kilograms lost, against about 13 and 19 at the rivals' rates ^[16]. On that crude ratio, a course of efpeglenatide matches a course of Wegovy on cost per point of weight lost only if it costs about 60% as much ^[15].

The ratio ignores time. Hanmi's reading came 28 weeks before semaglutide's endpoint and 32 weeks before tirzepatide's ^[19]. Spread evenly across each trial, efpeglenatide's loss is about 0.23 points a week, against 0.22 for semaglutide and 0.29 for tirzepatide ^[17]. On that measure Hanmi could charge about 3% more per week than Wegovy and still match it per point lost ^[17]. That holds only if the loss kept accruing at the same pace after week 40.

The trial ran 64 weeks. According to JoongAng Daily, the loss seen at week 40 tended to persist through week 64, and the week-64 average was not disclosed ^[7]. If the 9.02% simply held, the weekly rate over the full trial falls to about 0.14 points, and the break-even drops to about 64% of Wegovy's weekly price ^[18]. The 64-week case is also the closer match in length to the 68-week semaglutide trial. Between the two readings, Hanmi's price ceiling against Wegovy moves by about 39 percentage points ^[20]. Hanmi has the week-64 figure that decides between them and has not released it ^[7].

Tolerability is what Hanmi offers for any price near the top of that range. Diarrhea hit 17.6% of patients, nausea 16.6% and vomiting 11.6% ^[10]. JoongAng Daily says those rates were lower than Wegovy's and generally at or below Mounjaro's ^[11]. The report does not give the rivals' rates, so the size of that gap cannot be checked from it.

"The price has not yet been finalized, but we plan to set it at a level that can ease the burden on patients who require long-term treatment and lower the barrier to accessing obesity drugs," a Hanmi spokesperson said ^[14]. Where that price lands sets up three outcomes. Below about 64% of Wegovy's, the drug holds up on cost per point even if weight loss stalled after week 40 ^[18]. Near import prices, patients would be paying for fewer side effects alone. And if imported supply tightens again, availability could decide prescriptions before price does ^[13].

I think Hanmi is pricing for maintenance, the patient who stays on a weekly shot for years, and the spokesperson's wording points the same way ^[14]. The counter-case is the week-64 number: if patients had regained weight by then, the long-term pitch fails ^[7]. A launch price above about 64% of Wegovy's, with no week-64 figure published, would prove this view wrong. Hanmi would then be charging for a tolerability edge the published comparison cannot size ^[18][11].