Oh Se-hoon ties Seoul's 310,000-home target to rules and money held by the central government

Spread evenly over the five calendar years from 2027 through 2031, the pledge works out to about 62,000 ground-breakings a year ^[15]. A permit comes at an earlier stage than a ground-breaking, so the two figures measure different things. Still, the closest pace figure Oh gave was for permits: roughly 40,000 homes in Seoul from January to August ^[13], or about 60,000 a year at that rate ^[16].

More than half of those permits, about 22,000 or 55%, came from redevelopment projects, Oh said ^[13][17]. He used the number to dispute President Lee Jae-myung's view that the rise came from the government's "speed campaign" ^[13]. According to Oh, the city spent five years designating redevelopment zones and speeding approvals, and the government has leaned in only over the past two to three months ^[14]. His conditions sit in that same pipeline. He said the target can be met only if the central government improves regulations ^[2]. The two asks he named are a temporary lifting of restrictions on transferring association member status and higher floor area ratios in redevelopment ^[3].

"If you look at supply in Seoul, the split between private and public is about nine to one," Oh said ^[6]. If that split held across the target, private builders would supply about 279,000 of the 310,000 homes ^[18]. For private supply outside redevelopment, Oh's answer is long-term rental housing, made more attractive through tax, financing and lending benefits he would press the central government to grant ^[5]. He named Canadian pension funds among overseas investors who see value in Seoul property but hesitate to enter ^[7]. "There is a lot of money waiting to invest, but it cannot move," Oh said ^[8]. With incentives in place, he predicted, the market could move within three to four years, after a preparation period, to rental supply outstripping demand ^[19].

What the city puts in itself is staff, or rather two kinds of staff: officials tasked with keeping projects on schedule, and coordinators for disputes inside associations ^[4]. Remodeling support has not been costed. Oh acknowledged he kept policy weight off remodeling for five years, as easier rebuilding rules pulled complexes toward rebuilding ^[10]. "There is no reason to leave remodeling neglected as it is now," he said ^[11]. Details will follow a department report, and he gave no timeline for operating standards and did not list the support ^[12].

His requested meeting with Land, Infrastructure and Transport Minister Hong Ji-sun ^[9] can go one of three ways. The ministry could grant both the regulatory asks and the rental incentives. The pension money Oh described would then get its test, and his three-to-four-year forecast would get a start date ^[19]. It could grant the redevelopment rules and decline the tax breaks, leaving the target resting on the pipeline that produced 55% of this year's permits ^[17]. Or the dispute with Lee over credit could slow both ^[13]. I think the city has committed staff hours and handed the priced part of the plan to the ministry. The case against that view is Oh's own account that the government has turned toward redevelopment in recent months ^[14], which would make the regulatory asks easier to win. The view is wrong if the remodeling report arrives with city money attached ^[12].