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Samsung turned 87% of its added sales into profit in a record 107.4 trillion won quarter

Samsung Electronics estimated third-quarter operating profit at a record 107.4 trillion won, up 782.5% from a year earlier. Its operating margin went from about 14% to roughly 55% over the year, and buyers of AI hardware are paying for that gain while memory supply trails demand.

The Investor · Invest desk

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Photograph accompanying Samsung turned 87% of its added sales into profit in a record 107.4 trillion won quarter
Photo: channelnewsasia.com

What happened

  • Operating profit topped the FnGuide consensus of 106 trillion won even though a stronger won had been expected to weigh on earnings.
  • Against the previous quarter, operating profit rose 20% while revenue grew a slower 13.7%.
  • Channel NewsAsia tied the gains to soaring prices from tight supply of conventional DRAM and NAND chips and growing demand for high-bandwidth memory.

Compiled by The InvestorSomething wrong?How this is made

Why it matters

  • cost Memory budgets set on second-quarter pricing are already stale: the largest supplier kept about 55 won of operating profit per 100 won of sales in the third quarter, against 52 in the second.
  • constraint A supplier selling less than forecast at a higher margin than forecast looks short of output, so AI hardware buyers have little reason to count on extra Samsung volume to ease prices soon.
  • decision With the memory supply gap expected to run into 2027, a fixed AI hardware budget faces a choice between paying shortage prices for memory and buying fewer machines.

Working back from the 126.6% revenue growth rate [2], Samsung's sales a year ago were about 86.1 trillion won [14]. The 12.17 trillion won of operating profit it earned then [1] was a margin of roughly 14% [15]. This quarter's margin is about 55% [13]. Over the year, revenue rose by about 109 trillion won and operating profit by about 95 trillion won, so roughly 87 won of every 100 won of added sales reached operating profit [16].

Samsung did not break out its divisions or explain what drove the growth [5], so the guidance cannot separate price from volume. An incremental margin near 87% is what higher prices on a mostly fixed cost base produce; added volume brings added cost with it. The effect was still building last quarter. On the 13.7% sequential revenue growth [3], second-quarter sales were about 171.5 trillion won, and 89.4 trillion won of profit [4] put the margin at about 52.1% [17]. The 23.5 trillion won of revenue added since then came through at about 77% [18].

The forecast miss points the same way. JoongAng Daily put analysts' revenue forecasts at 200.3 trillion won [8] and the FnGuide profit consensus at 106 trillion won [7]. Together those implied a margin of about 52.9%, and Samsung booked 5.3 trillion won less revenue than forecast and 1.4 trillion won more profit [19]. A supplier short of output and paid on price would produce that pattern. Channel NewsAsia's account of the market fits it: soaring demand for AI infrastructure has outstripped memory chip supply growth, according to its report [9].

The same numbers allow other readings. JoongAng Daily said a stronger won had been expected to weigh on earnings [7], and a currency effect could cut reported sales with no change in supply. The link to memory comes from the press coverage, which credited booming demand for AI chips with driving strong memory earnings [12]. Until Samsung reports by division, the 55% margin [13] is a blend of all its businesses, and those figures arrive with full results later this month [6].

I think the guidance supports a narrower claim than memory being the scarcest input in AI infrastructure. The three reports discuss memory alone. They show that memory is short and that Samsung's margins rose with it, but they cannot rank memory against processors or any other component. The quarter's profit is also still an estimate [1], and it beat the FnGuide consensus by about 1.3% [19].

What to watch

  • Samsung's divisional results later this month: if memory earns well below the group's roughly 55% margin, the shortage accounts for less of the quarter than these figures imply.
  • Fourth-quarter guidance: a sequential margin below this quarter's 55% would be the first sign that memory pricing has peaked.
  • Whether Samsung's revenue catches up with analyst forecasts; more volume at a flat margin would mean supply is easing.
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