Nvidia backs a pluggable optics format while promoting the co-packaged alternative

Two power claims in cryptobriefing.com's report bear on cost, and they start from different places. If Cisco's 50% module saving and 30% switch saving share a baseline ^[4], modules make up 30 over 50, or 60%, of the power in that comparison ^[12]. Nvidia's 3.5 times better power efficiency for co-packaged optics, measured against traditional pluggable transceivers ^[7], works out to about 71% less power for the same traffic, if efficiency means traffic per watt ^[13]. The 71% and the 50% come from different vendors with different comparison points, so they cannot be set side by side.

Nvidia's other figures need a second look. The report lists signal loss falling from roughly 22 dB to roughly 4 dB ^[8], a drop of 18 dB, and an 18 dB change is a power ratio of about 63 ^[14]. The report also lists, as a separate benefit, 63 times better signal integrity ^[7]. By our calculation those look like one measurement stated in two units.

We think the new format is a hedge, and Nvidia is the clearest case: it sells co-packaged switches ^[1] and backs a pluggable format ^[3]. The report's view is that this wins it the sale whichever architecture a customer picks for a given layer ^[17]. The counter-thesis is timing. Spectrum-X Photonics is not expected until the second half of 2026 ^[2], so the pluggable backing may only cover the gap before co-packaged parts ship.

The supplier claim is where the evidence is thinnest. The report says a component's format determines which companies can make it, which can purchase it and how fast it can be replaced ^[16], and then does not name the form factor, give its specifications, identify a governing body or set an availability date ^[11].

Three outcomes fit. A published specification open to any maker would let suppliers beyond the four in, and the supplier thesis would hold. A format shipped only inside Nvidia and Cisco switch ecosystems leaves the buyer and supplier lists where they are. If co-packaged optics takes the core and the new format settles at the edge, the effect is confined to layers where pluggables already sell.

We think the second or third is likelier until an open specification appears. A module maker outside the four shipping to a published specification would prove us wrong.