Topic
July CPI at 3.4% year over year with core at 2.5%, and a flat PPI with the annual rate cooling to 4.7%.
Headline wholesale inflation accelerated to 5.4% over twelve months while the monthly core gain slowed to 0.2%. Traders go into Friday's CPI with a 64% chance of a September hike priced in.
Reality
Brent rose 6% to $107 with routes through Hormuz and the Red Sea disrupted, and the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest in more than 19 years. Traders now put the odds of a hike on Wednesday at 70%.
Reality
CME FedWatch odds of an increase at the Sept. 15-16 Fed meeting rose from 58% to 87% in a week as crude and Treasury yields climbed together. A week ago a hike was already the majority call.
Reality
The August print matched expectations, the 30-year touched its highest since June 2004 before settling at 5.309%, and QCP Capital says the competing risk-free rate is the worst mix Bitcoin can face.
Reality
Headline CPI eased a tenth to 3.4% and core held at 2.5%. Neither number pays for a nine-percent monthly rally; the consensus that the Fed does nothing does.
Reality