Intel has won a U.S. patent for RGB MicroLED dies embedded in glass and wired through through-glass vias, aimed at diagnostics and chip lighting. Tom's Hardware sees a possible second route to co-packaged optics beside AUO's 10-metre MicroLED links, though the patent claims no optical interconnect.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption5
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence45
Tower Semiconductor and Japan will co-invest $4 billion to reach 45,000 300mm-equivalent wafers a month of optical-connectivity capacity by 2029. Until the new fab lands in 2029, growth comes from adding tools to a fab that already ships.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption50
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence40
The optical interconnect startup is now past a billion dollars in outside funding, with Nvidia, AMD and MediaTek on the cap table since March, and its chief executive says everything has to be qualified for volume production by the end of 2027.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
The Atlas 960E fits 8 EFLOPS behind Huawei's own optical engines, and the Ascend 960DT arrives three quarters early, while rotating chairman Eric Xu says supply goes to Chinese customers first and dates China's catch-up with its own demand to 2030.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 26%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 36%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption50
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence60
The Dutch company stamps out waveguides for smart glasses and now wants to supply data center optics, a market where it has not installed a machine. Its backers include 3M Ventures and the European Investment Bank.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives70
- Confidence50
KeyBanc's optical thesis for Marvell and Marvell's own revenue guidance both land near $30 billion, four years apart and measuring different things. The purchase price for the technology is already committed.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives62
- Confidence36
Kyocera and Tohoku University report 13.6 decibels of isolation on a silicon waveguide, roughly a 95 percent cut in reflected light, from garnet crystallised by a laser aimed at one small patch. Lower loss and mass production are still on their list.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption8
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives58
- Confidence55
A forecast filed with a Hong Kong IPO puts data center optics at $144.4 billion in 2030, and the $15 billion already spent means rack decisions made now are bets on a moving roadmap.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption32
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives82
- Confidence45