E-Mart's goat milk formula sales grow at three times the pace of standard formula

Standard formula sales at E-Mart rose 37.8% over the same eight months, according to industry figures reported by the Seoul Economic Daily ^[1]. When the cheapest tier on the shelf grows by more than a third, the first explanation is more babies, and the report says births are rising ^[16]. Trading up shows in the 77.4-point gap between the two rates ^[13].

For a maker, the premium shows up as price per can. Ildong Foodis's goat can costs 15,100 won more than its standard can of the same size, about 38% ^[9], or roughly 68.6 won a gram against 49.8 ^[11]. Both products are Ildong's, so a parent who switches pays the same company more for the same 800 grams. The report includes retail prices only, without costs, birth counts or unit volumes, so how much of that 15,100 won reaches profit cannot be worked out from it.

The industry's share estimate is a check on the E-Mart figure. Goat formula is expected to take 13% of the formula market this year, up from 10% in 2022 ^[5], a gain of about three-quarters of a point a year ^[14]. Apply E-Mart's two growth rates to a market where goat formula held 10%, and its share would reach about 14.8% in one year ^[15], above the industry's 13%. Either E-Mart's goat business is outrunning the market, or the share had slipped below 10% before this year. (The test is rough: E-Mart's rates cover eight months, the estimate a full year.)

Lotte Mart's record supports the second reading. Chain its 2024 fall and 2025 rebound ^[2] and sales ended last year about 2% above their 2023 level ^[10]. Premium diapers at E-Mart have the same shape, a 26.2% gain this year after declines in 2024 and 2025 ^[6].

The numbers fit more than one outcome. If births keep rising and stay weighted toward first children, goat formula keeps taking share, and the makers with goat lines, Ildong and Maeil Dairies among them ^[3][4], collect the price difference on every switch. A second possibility is that 2026 is mainly recovery from two weak years, in which case growth flattens next year at a share not far above the old 10%. Or the gains are a channel effect confined to E-Mart, a retailer that also sells these categories at up to half price during promotions ^[8].

An industry official quoted by the Seoul Economic Daily tied the demand to birth order. "The number of births is rising, but a high share of them are first children, so there is a strong tendency to use better products on a single child," the official said ^[17].

I think the first outcome is the likelier one for formula, at a smaller scale than the 115% figure suggests: a share gain of under one point a year ^[14] at a per-can price about 38% above standard ^[9]. The counter-case runs through that quote. A premium built on first children weakens as later children make up more of the births. The view is wrong if the industry's 13% estimate ^[5] comes in close to 10% once the full year is counted.