Lotte Mart's pork gift set sales grew eighty times faster than its Korean beef sets

At Hyundai Department Store, the sets that sold out early were 200-gram packs of premium Korean beef, the Sodam Mae and the Sodam Juk ^[7]. That shopper kept the beef and cut the weight. The Lotte shopper swapped the animal instead: the chain's Korean beef sets start above 300,000 won ^[3], so moving to a pork set in the 100,000-won range takes at least 200,000 won off a single gift, about two-thirds of the cheapest beef ticket ^[2].

Fivefold growth against 4.9% is 400% against 4.9%, a ratio of about 82 to 1 ^[1]. The pork base is far smaller, and beef sales still rose 4.9%.

Presale revenue across the three chains rose 55% ^[8]. Presale windows are where the early bird incentives sit, the card discounts and the gift certificate giveaways, more than in the main sales period ^[9], and Sedaily attributes the growth to shoppers buying the same gifts for less ^[10]. Revenue is units times average price. If the mix moved down and revenue still rose 55%, unit sales grew faster than 55% ^[3]. The competing reading is a calendar move, with buyers shifting out of the main window to catch the discount and the main window giving it back.

One force is price, measured by the Seoul Agro-Fisheries & Food Corp. across 34 holiday staples for a family of six at 25 locations in Seoul, including traditional markets and hypermarkets ^[18]. The other is household size: Sedaily reports that growth in one- and two-person households has lifted demand for buying only what is needed, and that smaller portions lower the total price ^[22].

I'd expect the cheaper mix to hold through the main window, and sellers are already pricing for it. Coupang has secured 25 tons of Korean beef in advance with the Korea Hanwoo Association and the Hanwoo Self-Help Fund for a promotion at about half price ^[16], and SSG.com has widened its lineup below 50,000 won and strengthened member-only discounts ^[17]. The case against sits in the same data. Department stores say demand for premium items such as top-grade Korean beef and dried yellow croaker remains strong ^[21], and at hypermarkets the 50,000-to-100,000-won band rose 21% at E-Mart and 10% at Lotte Mart ^[11]. "Chuseok is a time when spending rises beyond gifts to include travel costs, cash gifts and holiday meals, so amid high prices, demand for value products with lighter price tags should stay strong through the main sales period as well," a retail industry official said ^[19].