InvestNot yet confirmed elsewhere1 publisher2 min readPublished
Bitcoin options open interest leans toward calls while max pain sits below spot
Traders hold 25,030.6 BTC of $95,000 bitcoin calls expiring Oct. 30 on Deribit, about $2.07 billion in notional. Max pain for that expiry sits near $78,000, and since both figures come from the same contracts, the gap depends on whether the calls were bought outright or sold by holders.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- Coinglass data puts calls at 60.24% of outstanding bitcoin options interest, or 268,357.06 BTC against 177,147.85 BTC in puts.
- Calls at $90,000 and $100,000 hold another 15,158 BTC and 14,561.8 BTC, taking the three upper strikes to about 54,750 BTC, or $4.53 billion at $82,800.
- Binance and OKX put Oct. 30 max pain at around $81,000 to $82,000, also below the market price.
- Bitcoin futures open interest stands at $51.7 billion, about 624,450 BTC, after falling 1.59% over 24 hours.
Why it matters
- constraint Outright buyers of the $95,000 calls need bitcoin up about 14.7% from $82,800 within 20 days before the contracts settle with any value.
- exposure If the calls were sold by spot holders, the call-heavy book belongs to people who traded away gains above $90,000 to $100,000 for premium, and a rally through those strikes costs them that upside.
- decision Max pain cannot be used as one settlement target: for Dec. 25 the venues' estimates sit $12,500 apart, so a trader using it has to pick which exchange's book they are trading against.
Max pain is the settlement price at which option holders, taken together, collect the least [10]. A $95,000 call pays nothing at any settlement below $95,000, so the 25,030.6 BTC at that strike adds nothing to holder payouts at $78,000 or at $82,000 [1][3]. A call position that size can sit far above spot and still leave max pain below spot. Deribit's estimate is 5.8% under the $82,800 price used for the notional figures, and $17,000 under the strike [15][16].
The question is who owns the calls. According to news.bitcoin.com, open interest alone cannot show whether they are outright bullish bets, calls written by holders, or hedges on other positions [8]. Outright buyers have bet on a rally past $95,000 within the 20 days left to expiry [14]. Writers have sold their upside for premium. For hedgers, the calls offset some other exposure.
The day's trading is less one-sided than the book. Calls are 60.24% of outstanding interest but 54.02% of the last 24 hours of volume [5][6], so the standing positions lean further toward calls than the trading now adding to them. The three upper strikes alone hold about a fifth of all the call open interest Coinglass counts [17].
Futures add little. The day's drop in futures open interest comes to about $835 million of closed positions, from a level near $52.5 billion [18]. Roughly nine-tenths of that came before the last four hours, and the final hour was up 0.01% [20][12]. A futures contract leaves open interest only when a long and a short both close, so a falling total shows leverage leaving the market and does not show its direction.
We think the 60% call share [5] is a weaker bullish signal than it looks, and the $78,000 max pain a weaker bearish one. Both are computed from the same contracts, and the data does not identify who holds them. The report also warns that market makers' hedging, shifting positions and spot demand can pull the price away from max pain before settlement [10]. The case against us can be tested. If bitcoin moves toward $90,000 and open interest at the $95,000 strike grows with it, that is fresh buying, and we are wrong to read these calls as holders selling premium.
What to watch
- Open interest at Deribit's $95,000 Oct. 30 strike as spot moves: growth on a rising price points to new buying, a decline points to writers closing.
- Whether Deribit's Oct. 30 max pain estimate climbs from near $78,000 as positions shift before expiry.
- Whether futures open interest resumes falling from $51.7 billion after a flat final hour.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
As of Oct. 10, 2026, Deribit's largest listed bitcoin options position contains 25,030.6 BTC in $95,000 calls expiring Oct. 30, roughly $2.07 billion in notional exposure at current prices.
- [2]
Bitcoin was trading above $82,000; the report values positions at a bitcoin price of $82,800.
- [3]
Deribit's estimated max pain for the Oct. 30 expiration stands near $78,000.
- [4]
For Oct. 30, Binance and OKX max pain estimates hover around $81,000 to $82,000, below bitcoin's current market price.
- [5]
Coinglass data shows call options account for 268,357.06 BTC, or 60.24% of total outstanding bitcoin options interest, compared with 177,147.85 BTC (39.76%) in puts.
- [6]
In 24-hour trading volume, calls represent 54.02% against 45.98% for puts.
- [7]
Another 15,158 BTC sits in $90,000 calls and 14,561.8 BTC in $100,000 calls; with the $95,000 contract the three represent about 54,750 BTC in open interest, roughly $4.53 billion at a bitcoin price of $82,800.
- [8]
According to the report, open interest alone cannot establish whether participants are outright bullish, writing calls or hedging existing positions.
- [9]
For the Dec. 25 expiration, Deribit's max pain sits near $75,000, Binance's estimate drops toward $62,500, and OKX remains around $75,000.
- [10]
Max pain measures the settlement price at which aggregate option-holder payouts would be minimized, not where bitcoin is destined to trade; market makers' hedging activity, shifting positions and spot-market demand can interfere with any pull toward those levels.
- [11]
Bitcoin futures open interest stands at $51.7 billion, approximately 624,450 BTC across tracked exchanges, down 1.59% over the preceding 24 hours.
- [12]
The four-hour futures open interest reading slipped 0.13%, while the one-hour figure rose a marginal 0.01%.
- [13]
Bitcoin must rise about 14.7% from $82,800 to reach the $95,000 strike.
- [14]
There are 20 days from Oct. 10 to the Oct. 30 expiry.
- [15]
Deribit's Oct. 30 max pain near $78,000 is about 5.8% below the $82,800 bitcoin price.
- [16]
The $95,000 strike sits $17,000 above Deribit's Oct. 30 max pain estimate.
- [17]
The $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000 call strikes hold about 20.4%, roughly a fifth, of the 268,357.06 BTC of call open interest Coinglass reports.
- [18]
Futures open interest of $51.7 billion after a 1.59% drop implies a prior level near $52.5 billion, so about $835 million of open interest closed in 24 hours.
- [19]
Dec. 25 max pain estimates span $12,500 across venues, from $62,500 on Binance to $75,000 on Deribit and OKX.
- [20]
Roughly nine-tenths of the 24-hour decline in futures open interest occurred before the last four hours.
Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- news.bitcoin.comBitcoin Traders Stack $4.5 Billion in Calls as $95K Bets Take Shape
1 article · October 10, 2026
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