Thirty-nine states, D.C., 145 tribal nations, the NFL and Gary Gensler urged the Supreme Court to decide whether sports prediction contracts are swaps. Two of the three appeals courts to rule have called those contracts state-regulated gambling, so platforms on federal licenses still face two possible regulators.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives65
- Confidence55
A unanimous panel decided that Kalshi's contracts on who wins a game are likely bets rather than swaps, which turns one federal registration back into a fifty-state licensing problem for the exchange.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 13%
- Operator
- Operator 56%
- Investor
- Investor 31%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives50
- Confidence74
Polymarket has hired Warren Jenson, formerly finance chief at Amazon, Delta Air Lines and Nielsen, to set capital strategy for a business now marked at about $21bn with no revenue figure attached to it.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 8%
- Operator
- Operator 41%
- Investor
- Investor 51%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives65
- Confidence60
Staff Letter 26-25 lets a passive front end display derivatives, pass orders to registered markets and take a fee without broker registration, so long as it stays out of custody, routing and advice. The position lasts until the Commission acts.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives62
- Confidence52
The exchange wants Bitcoin perpetuals reclassified as swaps, a label that would put Kalshi under swap dealer registration and higher capital requirements. CME's crypto futures did about $4.4 trillion of notional last year.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives72
- Confidence38
Kalshi plans to file for about 60 perpetual futures on mega-cap names including Tesla, Apple and Nvidia, each contract 100 shares at roughly 15% margin, and because equities are securities the product lands at two regulators at once.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives68
- Confidence36
The market maker told both agencies on September 9 that contracts settling on a company's revenue or passenger counts are security-based swaps, and that the venues listing them picked their own regulator.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives72
- Confidence45
The Wall Street Journal says Kalshi has prepared to seek approval for roughly 60 perpetual futures on stocks and ETFs, traded around the clock. Citadel Securities says equity-linked perps belong with the SEC.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives74
- Confidence46
Five former SEC and CFTC officials told the agencies that miscalibrated rules keep pushing perpetual futures offshore, and they filed the argument while Congress is on recess and the definitions are still being drafted.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption33
- Hype gap+27
- Incentives80
- Confidence55