ScienceNot yet confirmed elsewhere1 publisher2 min readPublished
A NOAA reconstruction rates the El Niño behind the 1870s famines at 2.88C above average
NOAA's Boyin Huang and colleagues put the 1877/78 El Niño at 2.88C above average in the Nino3 index, among the strongest in modern history. New Scientist traces an estimated 20 million to 30 million famine deaths in India, China and Brazil between 1876 and 1879 to that event.
The Scientist · Science desk
Four figures. Deaths in India, China and Brazil, 1876 to 1879: an estimated 20 million to 30 million. Possible global 1870s famine deaths: 50 million. Northern China's drought was its worst in 300 years. Bjerknes mapped El Niño in 1969, 92 years after the 1877 event.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated deaths in India, China, Brazil, at least | 20,000,000 deaths | estimates up to 30 million | 5 |
| Global, 1870s famine | 50,000,000 deaths, possibly | 6 | |
| Northern China: worst in | 300 years of drought | 1 | |
| Until Bjerknes's 1969 map | 92 years after 1877 | 17 |
What happened
- The drought was worst in northern China, which had its driest spell in 300 years, and it also reached north-eastern Brazil, India, South Africa and northern Africa.
- In some places the drought began before El Niño arrived, partly from unusually cool Pacific conditions, and left three or more years of very little rain.
- Authorities in China and India held grain reserves for monsoon failures, but New Scientist says the 1877/78 event was stronger than anything before it.
- Jacob Bjerknes tied Pacific sea-surface temperatures to the Southern Oscillation in 1969 and mapped the global dynamics of an El Niño.
Why it matters
- capability A warning is now possible in principle: in McPhaden's account, 1969 opened the idea that El Niños could be identified in real time and predicted in advance.
- constraint An El Niño forecast would not cover every region, because drought had already begun in some places before El Niño arrived, so the lead-in dry spell falls outside what an onset warning describes.
- decision Planners who set a stress case for grain reserves now have a measured benchmark, and we'd expect the argument over it to turn on the uncertainty in a reconstruction built from ship-era records.
The 2.88C figure comes with conditions. Huang and colleagues built a sea-surface temperature record back to 1850 from ship, buoy and float data [7]. Their number is a departure from average in the Nino3 index, calculated after accounting for the ocean warming trend observed since 1877 [8]. El Niños are usually sized by how far sea-surface temperatures in a specific tropical Pacific region sit from normal [11]. Huang said, "From our data reconstruction, we did find the El Niño signature, and it is a very strong El Niño" [10].
The death toll is a softer number than the temperature. The 20 million to 30 million deaths in three countries sit inside a global estimate that may have reached 50 million [6]. Historian Mike Davis wrote in Late Victorian Holocausts that the disaster was of "truly planetary magnitude" [16].
In 1877 scientists did not know the El Niño cycle existed. Michael McPhaden of NOAA said, "As a scientific topic, this was the Stone Ages for El Niño" [13]. The framework that links Pacific temperatures to the Southern Oscillation came with Bjerknes in 1969, 92 years after the event [17].
The reconstruction does not show whether modern forecasting and food-system preparedness would prevent a repeat, or how many of the deaths a warning would have averted. We think the forecasting case is well supported by the history, because in 1877 no one had the framework to issue a warning [12][14].
What to watch
- The published uncertainty range on Huang's 2.88C Nino3 value for 1877/78, and whether other sea-surface reconstructions agree with it.
- Evidence on whether early warning combined with grain reserves changes outcomes in a multi-year drought, which this reconstruction does not test.
- Whether forecast products cover the cool Pacific phase that preceded the 1877/78 El Niño, since drought began then in some regions.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
The 1877/78 El Niño resulted in droughts around the world. The situation was most acute in northern China, which suffered its worst drought in 300 years, and also hit north-eastern Brazil, India, South Africa and northern Africa.
- [2]
In some of the drought locations, drought had begun even before El Niño hit, triggered in part by unusually cool conditions in the tropical Pacific immediately before El Niño arrived. The result was three or more years of very little rain and repeated crop failures.
- [3]
Authorities in China and India held grain reserves for when monsoon rains failed, but the 1877/78 El Niño was stronger than anything that had come before, according to New Scientist.
ReportedSupportedSource: New Scientist2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [4]
New Scientist says the root cause of the catastrophe was a supersized El Niño event that released vast amounts of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere.
ReportedSupportedSource: New Scientist2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [5]
The total death toll across India, China and Brazil between 1876 and 1879 is estimated at 20 million to 30 million.
- [6]
Globally, there may have been 50 million deaths in the 1870s famine.
- [7]
Boyin Huang of NOAA and colleagues used sea-surface data from ships, buoys and modern floats to reconstruct a temperature record stretching back to 1850.
- [8]
In the Nino3 index, after accounting for the background ocean warming trend observed since then, temperatures in 1877/78 were 2.88C above average, according to Huang's research.
- [9]
New Scientist reports that the result suggests the 1877/78 El Niño was among the strongest, if not the strongest, event in modern history.
- [10]
Huang said: "From our data reconstruction, we did find the El Niño signature, and it is a very strong El Niño."
- [11]
The strength of an El Niño is usually measured by how far sea-surface temperatures in a specific region of the tropical Pacific have deviated from normal.
- [12]
Scientists in 1877 were not aware of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, and in the aftermath of the 1877/78 El Niño many researchers were convinced sunspots were to blame.
- [13]
Michael McPhaden of NOAA said: "As a scientific topic, this was the Stone Ages for El Niño."
- [14]
In 1969 meteorologist Jacob Bjerknes connected changing sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific to the Southern Oscillation and mapped out the global dynamics of an El Niño.
- [15]
McPhaden called Bjerknes's 1969 work the "big bang" for El Niño research, ushering in the idea that with the right data and equipment, El Niños could be identified in real time and even predicted in advance.
- [16]
Historian Mike Davis writes in the book Late Victorian Holocausts that the disaster was of "truly planetary magnitude".
- [17]
Bjerknes's 1969 mapping of El Niño dynamics came 92 years after the 1877 event.
Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- newscientist.comWhy the worst El Niño killed millions – and how we can avoid a repeat
1 article · October 12, 2026
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