Yuhan's lazertinib royalties are expected to top 40 billion won on J&J sales up 62.3%
Yuhan is expected to collect over 40 billion won in lazertinib royalties this year after J&J's combined Q3 sales rose 62.3% to $320 million. Shinhan Securities projects 507 billion won a year by 2040, with 40% going to Oscotec, the original developer.
The Investor · Invest desk
Key figures: a 40 billion won year needs a fourth quarter of 17.0 billion won if NH's first three quarters hold. NH estimates 15.7 billion won for the fourth quarter and 38.7 billion won for the year.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth quarter needed if NH's first three hold | 17 billion won | 9 | |
| NH estimate, fourth quarter | 15.7 billion won | 1 | |
| NH estimates, year total | 38.7 billion won | 8 |
What happened
- Sequentially, J&J's combined Rybrevant and lazertinib sales were about 10.7% higher than in the previous quarter.
- Shinhan Securities projected annual royalties of 105 billion won in 2027 and 147 billion won in 2028.
- An industry official pointed to a U.S. insurance billing code for subcutaneous Rybrevant, applied since July, and to combination sales now underway in Europe.
Why it matters
- cost Oscotec takes 40% of every royalty won: 16 billion of a 40 billion won year, and about 203 billion of Shinhan's 2040 figure if the split holds.
- contradiction The headline forecast and NH's quarterly estimates do not agree, so at least one quarter in the 40 billion won case has to beat NH.
- exposure Yuhan's year depends on the royalty terms: if royalties only follow J&J's sales growth, the total lands near 28.7 billion won.
- constraint Shinhan's 2040 figure leaves little room for a slowdown, since it needs about 10.9% growth a year for 12 years after 2028.
Add NH Investment & Securities' four quarterly estimates for Yuhan's royalties (5.4 billion won, 7 billion, 10.6 billion and 15.7 billion) [1] and the year comes to 38.7 billion won [8]. That is 1.3 billion under the 40 billion that en.sedaily.com says Yuhan is expected to collect [2]. If the first three quarters land as NH has them, the fourth would need to reach 17 billion won, about 8% above NH's 15.7 billion [9].
The larger gap, or rather the more interesting one, is between sales and royalties. J&J's combined sales rose about 10.7% on the previous quarter [4]. NH's royalty estimates rise 51% from the second quarter to the third and 48% from the third to the fourth [13][14]. Royalties that tracked sales would not do that. Grow NH's second-quarter 7 billion won at 10.7% a quarter and the third quarter comes to about 7.7 billion and the year to about 28.7 billion, against a 40 billion headline [15][16]. Either the royalty terms step up with volume or NH's estimates run ahead of sales. The article does not say which, or whose forecast the 40 billion is.
In our view the lower case is the one the evidence cannot rule out. Sales growth alone reaches it, and the 40 billion needs the royalty line to step up as well. The counter-thesis is that it does. "With a U.S. insurance billing code applied to the subcutaneous formulation of Rybrevant since July and sales of the combination therapy now underway in Europe, royalties will grow further," an industry official said [17]. Yuhan's reported third-quarter royalty settles it: a figure near 10.6 billion won backs NH, and one near 7.7 billion backs the lower case.
Two brokers are not directly comparable, but Shinhan Securities' projections sit well above NH's run rate. NH's fourth-quarter 15.7 billion won, annualized, is 62.8 billion; Shinhan's 105 billion for 2027 is 67% above that [5][10]. From 147 billion won in 2028 to 507 billion in 2040 is a 3.4-fold rise over 12 years, or about 10.9% a year [11]. The article frames the 2040 number as conditional on overseas prescriptions continuing to grow [7].
What to watch
- Yuhan's reported third-quarter royalty: near NH's 10.6 billion won supports the 40 billion case, near 7.7 billion supports the lower one.
- Whether J&J's next combined sales figure keeps growing at about 10.7% a quarter or accelerates toward the pace NH assumes for royalties.
- A fourth-quarter royalty of 17 billion won or more, the level a 40 billion won year requires if NH's first three quarters hold.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence45
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
NH Investment & Securities estimated Yuhan's lazertinib royalties at 5.4 billion won in the first quarter, 7 billion won in the second, 10.6 billion won in the third and 15.7 billion won in the fourth.
- [2]
Yuhan is expected to collect more than 40 billion won in royalties this year as global sales of its lung cancer drug lazertinib expand.
- [3]
Johnson & Johnson said on the 13th that combined third-quarter sales of Rybrevant and lazertinib reached $320 million, up 62.3% from a year earlier.
- [4]
The combined Rybrevant and lazertinib sales figure was about 10.7% higher than the previous quarter.
- [5]
Shinhan Securities projected annual royalties of 105 billion won in 2027, 147 billion won in 2028 and 507 billion won in 2040.
- [6]
Yuhan distributes 40% of the royalties to Oscotec, the original developer.
- [7]
If overseas prescriptions continue to grow, annual royalties could reach 500 billion won by 2040.
- [8]
NH's four quarterly royalty estimates sum to 38.7 billion won, 1.3 billion won under the 40 billion won headline.
- [9]
If the first three NH quarters hold, a 40 billion won year needs a fourth quarter of 17.0 billion won, about 8.3% above NH's 15.7 billion won estimate.
- [10]
NH's fourth-quarter estimate annualized is 62.8 billion won; Shinhan's 2027 projection of 105 billion won is about 67% above it.
- [11]
Shinhan's path from 147 billion won in 2028 to 507 billion won in 2040 is a 3.4-fold rise over 12 years, about 10.9% a year.
- [12]
At a 40% share, Oscotec receives 16 billion won of a 40 billion won year (Yuhan keeps 24 billion won) and about 203 billion won of Shinhan's 507 billion won for 2040, if the split holds.
- [13]
NH's royalty estimate rises about 51% from the second quarter to the third.
- [14]
NH's royalty estimate rises about 48% from the third quarter to the fourth.
- [15]
If royalties grew at J&J's 10.7% sequential rate from NH's 7 billion won second quarter, the third quarter would be about 7.7 billion won.
- [16]
On that 10.7% quarterly growth path from NH's second quarter, the year totals about 28.7 billion won.
- [17]
"With a U.S. insurance billing code applied to the subcutaneous formulation of Rybrevant since July and sales of the combination therapy now underway in Europe, royalties will grow further," an industry official said.
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Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- en.sedaily.comLazertinib Royalties to Top 40 Billion Won This Year
1 article · October 14, 2026
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Entities
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- NH Investment & SecuritiesFollow
- Shinhan SecuritiesFollow