UAW's Michigan door-knocking tests whether its members still vote as a bloc

Shawn Fain won the UAW presidency in 2023 on a transparency platform, and his wins in disputes with Detroit's three major automakers built up support among members ^[8]. Union leaders hope that support will turn into votes for the union's candidates ^[20]. Walter Usakowski is a retiree who worked more than 45 years at Ford's Sterling Axle Plant, and he already backs the slate ^[15]. "I think the UAW members now are starting to fall a little more in line," he said ^[13]. He is less sure about the "guys in the shop." He knows many of them backed Trump ^[15].

The UAW generally backs Democrats, but its members are more divided over which party speaks for working-class interests ^[2]. Trump appealed to union voters directly, with anti-elite rhetoric and promises to overhaul the trade agreements that cost factory jobs ^[21]. In 2024, Harris beat him among voters in union households by more than six points ^[24]. Most of the members the canvassers met in Macomb were retirees. Most named the cost of living as their top concern, and they disagreed on which party would do more about it ^[16].

Betty Anderson, a member who thinks the union is on the right track, doubts the divide can be closed ^[23]. "I don't think those people are ever going to be on our side," she said. "They think they have an opportunity to be in an elite class." ^[14] So far the union's answer has been process. Mark DePaoli, director of one of its southeast Michigan regions, said it held candidate forums where any member could ask questions ^[18]. Of the union's pick in the Senate primary, he said: "I don't think anybody expected us to endorse him." ^[11] El-Sayed now faces the Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers, and he wore a UAW pin to their first debate ^[17].

Trust will take longer to rebuild. Members faulted earlier leaders for closed-door contract talks that they said destroyed trust in the UAW ^[7]. The union has also seen a drop in membership ^[3]. The ABC News report does not put a figure on that decline. JJ Jewell, who sits on the UAW's Community Action Program executive committee, described how long the work will take. "It's not going to be an overnight thing," he said. "Even if this election goes fantastically, that's not mission accomplished. That means we're 1% of the way done." ^[12]

In our view, the union's leverage over employers and its pull over members' votes are two separate things, and this evidence bears mostly on the second. The reporting does not link the partisan split to the union's strength in contract talks, which is where Fain built his record ^[8]. The doubt is on the electoral side. Leaders are counting on canvassing to reassert the union's power in one of the country's main political battlegrounds ^[1]. On one Macomb street, a couple who both supported Trump turned down the flyer listing the UAW-endorsed candidates ^[22].