Korea's fewer, bigger strikes cost 24% more workdays in nine months than all of last year

The indicator multiplies the number of strikers by the hours they stayed out and divides by eight, the standard workday ^[3]. It grows with headcount exactly as fast as with duration. Through August, 441,343 days across 72 disputes ^[4][5] works out to about 6,130 days per dispute ^[14]. Last year's 393,744 days across 123 disputes ^[2][4] came to about 3,201 ^[15], and 2023's 355,222 across 223 ^[6] to about 1,593 ^[16]. This year's average dispute is nearly twice last year's and close to four times 2023's ^[17].

The nine-month total already exceeds every full year in the series from 2021 through last year, the highest of which was 471,754 in 2021 ^[23]. A straight-line pace puts the year near 652,000 days ^[20]. Seoul Economic Daily reported that if the increase continues, the total could be the highest since 2017, when 862,000 days were lost ^[26]. Matching 2017 would take another 372,810 days in the fourth quarter ^[21], about 124,000 a month, or roughly 2.6 times what September added ^[22]. That would still be well under the 2.035 million days lost in 2016 ^[11].

The narrowest reading is that a few wage-season standoffs swelled the count and will settle. September fits it: the month added 47,847 days ^[18], below the roughly 55,200 a month averaged over the first eight months ^[19]. A second reading is that the fights over performance-based pay and wage-structure overhauls recur wherever profits rise, because unions are demanding a share of profits as earnings improve ^[24]. The third runs through the Yellow Envelope Act. Since March it has required a prime contractor to bargain with subcontracted workers, even without a direct employment contract, when it substantially and specifically controls their working conditions ^[9].

We think the second and third readings fit the year better than the first. The average dispute roughly doubled from 2023 to last year and roughly doubled again this year ^[17], a rise that spans more than one bargaining season. Both readings put the exposure on large employers, or rather on the large employers whose earnings are improving, since profit-share demands follow earnings ^[24]. The counter-case has evidence too. The ministry's own explanation is routine wage and collective bargaining at some large workplaces ^[7]. Seoul Economic Daily presents the Yellow Envelope link only as something some observers say ^[27], and the share of the increase coming from performance-pay disputes has not been confirmed ^[25]. The reported figures do not name employers or estimate lost output, so the days cannot yet be matched to listed companies. A fourth quarter that looks like September would weaken the case for recurring large disputes, and with it the case that this is a big-cap problem.

Rep. Kim Wi-sang, whose office obtained the data ^[1], said the government's "double-sided attitude of respecting labor only in words is the cause of growing conflict in the field" ^[12]. He added that the government "should halt a series of actions, including the one-sided relocation and consolidation of public institutions, and start talking with workers" ^[13].