Invest2 publishersIndependently confirmed3 min readPublished
Chip-export dollars push the won price of 100 yen to its lowest since 2008
Koreans buying yen are paying the least in about 18 years, as 100 yen fell into the mid-800s of won this week from about 950 in early summer. Most of the drop is the won's chip-export rally against the dollar, Korea Times figures show, so the saving depends on that boom lasting.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- Hana Bank recorded an intraday low of 844.16 won per 100 yen on Wednesday, the cheapest yen since January 2008, when the rate stood at 837.58.
- Analysts quoted by the Korea Times name semiconductor exports as the main driver of the won's strength, through dollar inflows and a widening current account surplus.
- The yen sank to nearly 164 per dollar in late July, prompting a coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention that pushed it back to around 156 only briefly.
- Three typhoons are active in the northwestern Pacific over Korea's Hangeul Day holiday, though none is currently forecast to hit the Korean Peninsula or Japan's mainland directly.
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Why it matters
- cost Anyone in Korea changing 100,000 yen now spends about 105,000 won less than at June's average rate, an 11% cut in the won cost of a yen-priced trip or invoice.
- exposure Korean buyers of yen now carry won-dollar risk: with the yen near 159 per dollar, a won back at July's month-end 1,424 would lift 100 yen to about 897 won.
- contradiction Seoul Economic Daily frames the move as the yen's 18-year low and the Korea Times as the won's 18-year high. The dollar rates support the Korea Times version, so Korea's export cycle, more than Japanese policy, sets what Koreans pay for yen.
Seoul has no direct market in yen. Banks derive the won-yen rate from each currency's rate against the dollar [10], so a cheaper 100 yen can come from either side of that division. The sources do not include the margin a bank adds when a traveler buys yen cash.
The dollar figures point to the won. It went from 1,549.4 per dollar at the end of June to 1,352.8 at the end of September [5], a 12.7% drop in the won price of a dollar [19]. Over about the same months the won price of 100 yen fell 11.2% [20], from June's 950.38 average [2] to Wednesday's 844.16 low [3] (a monthly average against an intraday print, so the comparison is approximate). The cross moved a little less than the won did. Against the dollar, the yen roughly held its ground, if anything firming by about 2% [23].
Stephen Chiu, chief emerging markets foreign exchange strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said the won has stayed resilient around 1,340 per dollar as its rally slowed [7]. Dividing that by Wednesday's cross gives roughly 159 yen per dollar [21], inside the 157-160 band the yen went back to once the summer intervention wore off [16]. The yen has struggled to gain ground despite the Bank of Japan's rate hike last month, the Korea Times reported [11].
The cash behind the won comes from chips. HSBC Global Investment Research called Korea's record current account surplus a "game changer for the Korean won" [6]. It said more of those gains are being recycled at home through investment, bonuses, shareholder returns and taxes, and that recycling requires converting foreign currency into won [8]. Since July the two currencies have split, a rare divergence for a pair whose moves have historically reflected "significant overlap in the two countries' export structures," according to Ashok Bhundia, deputy chief economist at the Institute of International Finance [15].
Chiu said the divergence is likely to persist through the end of the year, a period when Korean exports and the won tend to perform well [14]. Joey Chew, head of Asia FX research at HSBC, called export growth "still quite narrow-based" and said "the risk for the Korean won is that the AI boom suddenly ends" [13]. The yen can also move by itself. At 1,340 won per dollar, a yen back near its late-July level of 164 would price 100 yen at about 817 won [25], below the January 2008 level [3].
I'd expect the cross to stay in the 800s into December, on Chiu's seasonal case and on HSBC's evidence that the surplus is being spent at home in won [14][8]. The counter-thesis is Chew's: one sector is supplying the dollars [4], and the IIF's history describes two currencies that usually move together [15]. The view is wrong if the won drifts back toward its end-July rate against the dollar before the year-end season Chiu is counting on arrives [5][14].
What to watch
- Whether the cross breaks January 2008's 837.58 won per 100 yen, which is 6.58 won, or about 0.78%, below Wednesday's intraday low.
- Korea's chip export receipts, the dollar inflow analysts credit for the won's strength; a slowdown would reach yen prices through the won-dollar rate.
- Typhoon Koguma's track, whose 70% probability radius for the 13th spans 440 kilometers, leaving room for a shift in its course.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
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- [1]
The Japanese yen fell to its weakest level in about 18 years ahead of Korea's Hangeul Day holiday; the won-yen rate held in the mid-800 won range per 100 yen on the 8th.
ReportedSupportedSource: Seoul Economic Daily2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [2]
The monthly average won-yen rate declined from 950.38 won per 100 yen in June to the 920 won range in July and the 880 won range in August.
ReportedSupportedSource: Seoul Economic Daily2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [3]
According to Hana Bank, the won-yen rate fell as low as 844.16 won per 100 yen in intraday trading Wednesday, its lowest level since January 2008, when it stood at 837.58 won.
ReportedSupportedSource: Korea Times, citing Hana Bank2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [4]
Analysts say semiconductors have been the biggest driver of the won's strength; robust chip exports have boosted dollar inflows into Korea and helped underpin a widening current account surplus.
ReportedSupportedSource: Korea Times, citing analysts2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [5]
The won-dollar rate fell from 1,549.4 won per dollar at the end of June to 1,424 at the end of July, 1,368.6 at the end of August and 1,352.8 at the end of September.
- [6]
HSBC Global Investment Research called Korea's record current account surplus a "game changer for the Korean won."
ReportedSupportedSource: HSBC Global Investment Research, via Korea Times2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [7]
Stephen Chiu, chief emerging markets foreign exchange strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said the won's rally has slowed recently but the currency has remained resilient around 1,340 per dollar.
ReportedSupportedSource: Stephen Chiu, Bloomberg Intelligence, via Korea Times2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [8]
HSBC said more of Korea's surplus gains are being recycled into the domestic economy through investment, bonuses, shareholder returns and taxes, prompting foreign exchange conversion and further supporting the won.
ReportedSupportedSource: HSBC Global Investment Research, via Korea Times2 sources— create a free account to open themView cited source - [9]
At June's average rate, exchanging 100,000 yen required about 950,000 won; at 845 won per 100 yen the same amount costs about 845,000 won, a saving of more than 100,000 won.
- [10]
The yen is not traded directly in Seoul's foreign exchange market; banks calculate the won-yen rate indirectly using each currency's exchange rate against the U.S. dollar.
- [11]
The yen has struggled to gain ground despite the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike last month.
- [12]
The yen weakened to nearly 164 per dollar in late July, prompting an unusual coordinated intervention by U.S. and Japanese authorities that briefly pushed the rate back to around 156 yen per dollar; the effect proved short-lived.
- [13]
Joey Chew, head of Asia FX research at HSBC, said export growth is "still quite narrow-based" and that "the risk for the Korean won is that the AI boom suddenly ends."
- [14]
Stephen Chiu said the divergence between the won and yen is likely to persist through the end of the year, a period when Korean exports and the won tend to perform well.
- [15]
The won and yen have moved in sharply different directions since July, a rare divergence between two currencies whose movements have historically reflected "significant overlap in the two countries' export structures," according to Ashok Bhundia, deputy chief economist at the Institute of International Finance.
- [16]
After the intervention's short-lived effect, the yen returned to the 157-160 yen-per-dollar range.
- [17]
Three typhoons, Choi-wan, Nolo and Koguma, are active in the northwestern Pacific during the holiday stretch beginning with Hangeul Day on the 9th; based on projected paths they are unlikely to directly affect the Korean Peninsula and no direct landfall on the Japanese mainland is currently expected.
ReportedSupportedSource: Seoul Economic Daily, citing the Korea Meteorological AdministrationView cited source - [18]
The 70% probability radius for Typhoon Koguma's forecast position on the 13th extends 440 kilometers, leaving open the possibility that its course could shift.
ReportedSupportedSource: Seoul Economic Daily, citing the Korea Meteorological AdministrationView cited source - [19]
The won price of a dollar fell about 12.7% from end-June to end-September.
- [20]
The won price of 100 yen fell about 11.2% from June's average to Wednesday's intraday low.
- [21]
Implied yen-per-dollar rate at Wednesday's cross is roughly 159 (158.7).
- [22]
Wednesday's low sits 6.58 won, or about 0.78%, above the January 2008 level.
- [23]
Because the cross fell less than the won-dollar rate, the yen roughly held against the dollar over the period, firming about 1.7% (approximate, mixed bases).
- [24]
With the yen at about 158.7 per dollar, a won at 1,424 per dollar would put 100 yen at about 897 won.
- [25]
At 1,340 won per dollar and 164 yen per dollar, 100 yen would cost about 817 won.
- [26]
Changing 100,000 yen costs about 105,000 won less at 845 won per 100 yen than at June's average, an 11% cut.
Sources
2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- en.sedaily.comYen Hits 18-Year Low as Triple Typhoons Cloud Japan Travel Plans
1 article · October 8, 2026
- koreatimes.co.krKorean won hits 18-year high against Japanese yen on booming chip exports
1 article · October 7, 2026
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