Topic
Central bank rate decisions, policy stance, and the transition between easing and tightening cycles.
Thirty-year Treasuries near 5.3%, a level unseen since 2007, are tightening conditions without help from the Fed. People who sat beside Kevin Warsh say he will notice and not react.
Reality
Andrew Levin argues that a portfolio holding roughly 30% of Treasury notes and bonds and over 40% of agency MBS needs case-specific runoff, not a uniform exit.
Reality
The FOMC held at 3.50%-3.75%, but a quarter of the voting committee wanted 25 basis points immediately. Portfolios still built around the December 2025 cut are on the wrong side of that argument.
Reality
The University of Michigan's share of consumers expecting income to outpace inflation has fallen from 18% in December 2024 to 8%. Plans that assume full cost pass-through look fragile.
Reality