other
Currency at the centre of the reported intervention and the carry-trade funding leg; reported near 40-year lows against the US dollar before the operation.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
The won closed at 1,397.7 on the 19th, down 14.1 in a session, even as the U.S. 30-year yield hit its highest since 2007. Exporter flow, not rate differentials, set the price.
Reality
The Bank of Japan held at 1% after raising from 0.75% in June. With 2.5% inflation projected against 0.6% growth, its own forecast says the tightening is not finished.
Reality
The benchmark JGB yield is near 2.93%, a level last seen in September 1996, and up more than 70 basis points this year. Global funding assumptions built on cheap yen need rewriting.
Reality
The first joint US-Japan yen intervention in three decades moved the rate about seven yen and handed much of it back, leaving the carry trade as the live risk.
Reality
Leveraged funds cut net yen shorts from nearly 138,000 contracts to about 59,500 in roughly five weeks. The carry trade's risk premium has been re-priced by policy, not by rates.
Reality