Chinese acquisitions in US counties one standard deviation more conservative completed about 20 points less often

A fall from about 62% to about 42% ^[5] is 20 percentage points ^[10], or roughly a third of the starting probability ^[11]. The step behind it is one standard deviation of conservatism ^[5].

The denominator is modest. The 267 deals came from 173 listed Chinese companies ^[2], about 1.5 deals each ^[12], so some acquirers appear more than once.

In the paper by Tang Yinuo of Peking University HSBC Business School and co-authors ^[1], the effect is worded as an association ^[5], and the deals analyzed had already happened ^[2]. Republican presidential vote share stands in for conservatism ^[3], so the estimate carries anything else that varies with how a county votes. The authors attribute the pattern to perceived threats and uncertainties ^[13]. That is an interpretation. The outcome measured is whether a deal was completed ^[4], and a deal can fail to complete for reasons other than local resistance.

Two moderators give the threat account some support. The relationship was especially pronounced in industries under heightened CFIUS scrutiny, where national security concerns may amplify community resistance ^[6]. It was also stronger in communities with higher unemployment ^[7]. Both are conditions under which a threat story predicts a steeper gradient, though neither measures what residents thought.

We think the result supports a narrow use, because it describes a gradient across 267 deals and forecasts no single one. County vote share is easy to look up and the gap is large, so it belongs in the early screen of targets, the stage at which the authors say the findings help ^[8].

The authors' advice is to build trust: communicate benefits such as job creation and economic development, keep operations transparent and collaborate with local institutions ^[9]. The summary does not include an interval around the 62% and 42%, a county count or a test of whether those steps raise completion.