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TD Cowen

TD Cowen is an investment bank and research firm, part of TD Securities, providing equity research, trading, and advisory services.

Current stories

investConfirmed3 publishers

Strategy repurchases at 29 percent above the price its liquidity sales fetched

Strive's 1,800 coins and Strategy's 4,603 put balance-sheet demand back on the tape, though the pioneer still holds 2,313 fewer bitcoin than it did in June and the newer bid is funded by a preferred paying 13 percent.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 5%
Operator
Operator 27%
Investor
Investor 68%

Reality

Evidence70
Adoption55
Hype gap+20
Incentives65
Confidence70
investConfirmed3 publishers

CFTC carves casino gambling out of its swap definition to claim event contracts for itself

Mike Selig's CFTC put one rule into force Friday and proposed another defining event contracts as swaps under its sole oversight, with 30 days for comment. States have won two of three federal appellate rulings so far, and the Supreme Court has been asked to settle the fight.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 18%
Operator
Operator 52%
Investor
Investor 30%

Reality

Evidence78
Adoption
Insufficient
Hype gap+10
Incentives70
Confidence72
investConfirmed3 publishers

Starbucks weighs a bid for the $41 billion Chipotle that Brian Niccol left behind

Starbucks has explored a bid for Chipotle, the $41 billion chain its CEO Brian Niccol ran for six years, the Financial Times reported. Starbucks shares fell on the report, Quartz said, a reaction from the holders who would pay for the largest deal the restaurant industry has seen.

Perspective Coverage

6 publishers
Builder
Builder 6%
Operator
Operator 34%
Investor
Investor 60%

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Insufficient
Hype gap+25
Incentives
Insufficient
Confidence50
investConfirmed3 publishers

Skydance plans one HBO Max and Paramount+ service under roughly $80 billion of debt

Skydance's David Ellison plans to merge Paramount+ and HBO Max, a pairing he puts at over 200 million subscribers, now that the Warner Bros. deal has closed. The company says it carries roughly $80 billion of debt, so that scale has to turn into cash.

Publishers:cnbc.comqz.comtechdirt.com

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 7%
Operator
Operator 43%
Investor
Investor 50%

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Insufficient
Hype gap+30
Incentives70
Confidence55
investConfirmed7 publishers

Crypto's rulebook moves to the agencies after the Senate falls 11 short

The Senate blocked the Clarity Act 49-50 on Tuesday. By Thursday the SEC had published a tokenized-stock exemption its chairman tied to that defeat, on terms a future chairman can withdraw without a vote.

Perspective Coverage

7 publishers
Builder
Builder 21%
Operator
Operator 40%
Investor
Investor 39%

Reality

Evidence70
Adoption25
Hype gap+20
Incentives60
Confidence65
investConfirmed2 publishers

Anthropic's $15 billion-a-year SpaceX compute deal can end on 90 days' notice from either side

Anthropic pays SpaceX $1.25 billion a month for compute through May 2029 on terms either side can end with 90 days' notice. That notice period covers about $3.75 billion of the roughly $45 billion the contract is worth if it runs to term.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 15%
Operator
Operator 23%
Investor
Investor 62%

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption72
Hype gap+30
Incentives65
Confidence58
investOne report1 publisher

Bowman splits Fed bank supervision into five state-line regions, each with one accountable leader

Fed supervision chief Michelle Bowman is scrapping dozens of internal committees and regrouping bank oversight into five regions drawn on state lines. A parallel plan to raise asset thresholds by as much as 50%, on TD Cowen's estimate, will decide more of what banks pay for supervision.

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Insufficient
Hype gap+20
Incentives45
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

Saylor Argues Digital Credit Issuers Strengthen Each Other as Smarter Web Advances MORE Preferred Share

Smarter Web Company plans to raise £15 million to £25 million with MORE, the first preferred share from a UK corporate Bitcoin holder, pending FCA approval. How much it raises, and at what dividend, is an early check on Michael Saylor's claim that Bitcoin-backed credit issuers enlarge each other's market.

Reality

Evidence40
Adoption15
Hype gap+45
Incentives70
Confidence40