Skydance plans one HBO Max and Paramount+ service under roughly $80 billion of debt

Over 200 million is two subscriber bases added together. "You're immediately getting to scale in streaming between HBO Max and Paramount+, over 200 million global streaming subscribers," Ellison told CNBC, as Quartz reported ^[8]. A household paying for both apps counts twice in that sum and once in a merged service, so the single app starts at or below the figure he gave. Neither interview account includes an overlap number.

Ellison intends to combine both apps into one service ^[1] and keep the old business running beside it. In the same answer he listed "an incredibly profitable linear portfolio anchored by CBS" ^[9] as an asset. The combined pay-TV roster includes CNN, TNT, MTV and BET ^[3].

The company said it carries roughly $80 billion of debt after a deal that brought in $47 billion of new equity ^[4][2], or about $1.70 of debt for each new equity dollar ^[12]. It expects more than $10 billion of free cash flow by 2030 ^[5]. At that rate the debt is roughly eight years of the target ^[13]. The goal of at least $6 billion in run-rate synergies within three years ^[5] is three-fifths the size of the 2030 cash figure ^[14], though a run-rate saving and free cash flow are measured differently.

The antitrust settlement with state attorneys general fixes one cost line in place. Skydance committed to at least 30 theatrical releases a year in 2027 and 2028 and at least 32 a year in 2029, 2030 and 2031 ^[17], which comes to 156 films over five years ^[15]. (CNBC's write-up prints 2028 as the first 32-film year ^[18], a year the 30-film floor already covers.) Rentrak counts 35 films on the combined calendar for next year ^[6], three to five more than the floor ^[16]. Through 2031, cutting the film slate to fund the streaming merger or pay down debt is not an option ^[15].

The outcomes split on which business weakens first. If the merged app keeps most of its combined base, streaming can carry the debt and the channels become extra cash. Should pay TV shrink faster than the app grows, the 2030 target depends on a business that is getting smaller. Kreiz runs the integration and day-to-day operations while Ellison takes creative vision, technology and long-term strategy ^[7]. A slow integration would squeeze the three-year synergy clock while the film floor holds costs where they are.

I think the deal is a leveraged bet on how long CBS and the cable networks keep producing cash, with streaming size as the upside. The counter-case is Kreiz's. "It's getting harder and harder to reach the consumer and aggregate fans," he told CNBC ^[10], and on that view one large app is worth more than two smaller ones. The view is wrong if free cash flow climbs toward $10 billion while the channels shrink, because then the app is carrying the debt on its own.