Bitcoin futures open interest grows $2.3 billion in the payroll rally past $87,000

Most of the rate relief bitcoin is trading on had already arrived before the jobs report. CME's hike odds fell 40 points over the preceding week and 6 points on the day the data came out ^[26]. Polymarket showed the same pattern, with October hike odds at 23% by Oct. 1 against roughly 70% a week before ^[25]. Bitcoin had started rising before the payroll numbers were published, crypto.news reported ^[6]. Earlier in the week the coin traded around $83,500 with the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.20% ^[7]. After the release, yields and the dollar both fell ^[10].

The labor data is weaker than its headline. The August revision alone removed 29,000 jobs, the same number September added ^[19], and Crypto Briefing put the combined cut to July and August at 60,000 ^[4]. (The two crypto outlets differ by a thousand jobs on the consensus, 90,000 against 89,000 ^[1][4].) Bloomberg's account, carried by the Korea Herald, left room for more tightening. It said unemployment rose partly because the workforce grew, with participation at a four-month high of 61.8% ^[15]. With joblessness still historically low, it added, Fed officials can keep their attention on inflation as they consider when to raise rates again ^[9]. An October hold would be a pause after a 25 basis point increase in September to a range of 3.75% to 4% ^[8].

The futures book grew on the way up. The open interest added during the move was about 19 times the short liquidations CoinGlass recorded ^[23], and crypto.news described it as traders opening new positions while existing shorts were being closed ^[17]. September's rally had the same shape. Open interest climbed while apparent spot demand fell by roughly 170,000 BTC over 30 days, according to CryptoQuant ^[18], and the price topped out near $87,400 before sliding toward $83,000 on Sept. 29 ^[11].

Spot buyers kept adding, more slowly each day. Daily ETF inflows in the week to Sept. 25 went from $999 million on Monday to $134.5 million on Friday ^[13], so the last session brought in about 13% of the first ^[20].

"Weak print strengthens the no October hike scenario, but weak is not automatically bullish: soft-but-orderly supports the liquidity trade, a growth scare pulls risk assets, Bitcoin potentially included. Liquidity stays the driver either way," said Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank ^[22]. In his first case, an orderly labor market and a hold on Oct. 28, the next levels crypto.news identified are resistance near $87,500 and then $90,000 ^[5]. In his second, bitcoin may fall with other risk assets. The third case is a hike anyway, an outcome the market has marked down sharply but not removed ^[24].

I think the hold is mostly in the price, and the next leg depends on spot buyers. At press time bitcoin sat roughly $1,100 under its September high ^[21], a level it last reached on rising leverage and falling spot demand ^[18]. The view is wrong if bitcoin clears $87,500 while ETF inflows pick up and open interest stays flat, because that combination would put spot money behind the rally ^[5].