Blockchain.com's target IPO range tops out below its $7 billion 2023 private round

At $6 billion, the top of Blockchain.com's range is 86% of the roughly $7 billion it was valued at in November 2023, when Kingsway Capital led a $110 million Series E ^[7][1]. At $4 billion, the bottom is 57% ^[1]. Private investors valued the company at $14 billion in 2022, when it explored a listing, and against that mark the range works out to 29% to 43% ^[6][2]. Crypto Briefing reported that secondary trades have implied values closer to $4 billion ^[8].

At those prices, $500 million of new stock is about an eighth of the company at the low end and a twelfth at the top, assuming post-money figures ^[1][3]. The raise is also 93% of the roughly $537 million in equity the company says it has raised since its 2011 founding ^[9][4]. People familiar with the company say it has been profitable on an adjusted basis for three years ^[10]. Crypto Briefing expects the proceeds to fund the NYSE tokenization push and said that effort will likely require substantial investment in compliance and technology ^[19].

Bloomberg's sources said the company could pursue a smaller offering depending on market conditions, and that terms could still change ^[2]. Cointelegraph reported it was "open to a smaller offering if needed to complete a public listing" ^[3].

Much of the broader platform arrived after the May filing, and most of it runs on partners' infrastructure ^[22]. Tokenized US stocks and ETFs reach eligible European users through Ondo Finance ^[13]. Prediction markets came through Polymarket in July ^[14]. Perpetual contracts tracking the valuations of OpenAI and Anthropic launched on Hyperliquid's infrastructure in September ^[15]. The NYSE memorandum, signed on September 23, covers tokenized stocks on a digital platform the exchange has yet to launch, and it depends on regulatory approval ^[11][12]. The institutional pieces are Blockchain.com's own: a Cayman Islands custody license in August and a stablecoin payments business in Brazil ^[23].

What Blockchain.com brings to those partners is distribution. The company says it has more than 95 million wallets and 44 million confirmed accounts ^[16]. At $4 billion to $6 billion, buyers would pay roughly $91 to $136 per confirmed account ^[5]. The reports do not include revenue, so what an account earns is not known. Even the counts differ between Crypto Briefing reports: one cites more than 43 million confirmed accounts and $1.1 trillion in volume, another 44 million and $1.2 trillion ^[17][16].

A $6 billion price that holds in trading would mean public buyers are paying for the new product lines. A $4 billion price, or a smaller deal, would put them level with the secondary market. The third path is a stall like 2022's. Bitcoin has risen more than 30% since mid-August, when the US Treasury said it would sharply increase buybacks of long-dated debt ^[20]. The last cohort of crypto listings has not held its gains: Gemini, BitGo and eToro are roughly 50% to 80% below their post-IPO highs, according to Bloomberg ^[21].

I'd expect a price near the low end, given the secondary marks and the company's stated willingness to shrink the deal ^[8][3]. Prediction markets, the AI perpetuals and the NYSE agreement all came after the 2023 round ^[14][15][11]. Even the top of the range sits below what that round paid for a company that had none of them ^[1]. The view is wrong if the book fills at $6 billion or better, or if the offering grows past $500 million.