SoftBank looks to Gulf investors for up to $100 billion after borrowing to buy into OpenAI

Cryptobriefing puts SoftBank's OpenAI position at $64.6 billion for a 13% stake, financed in part through a $40 billion bridge facility as well as the September bond ^[7][5]. Only that report gives the bridge figure. If the bridge and the bond are separate money, SoftBank borrowed $51.1 billion to build a $64.6 billion position, about 79% of the cost ^[14][15]. If bond proceeds paid down part of the bridge, the borrowing is nearer $40 billion, about 62% ^[14][15]. The reports do not say which, or what either facility costs.

The asset behind that debt has only a private valuation. At the $852 billion valuation from OpenAI's $122 billion round, a 13% stake is worth about $110.8 billion ^[10][17]. SoftBank's average entry works out to roughly $497 billion, for a paper gain near $46.2 billion ^[19][18]. That assumes the stake is still 13% at the new valuation. SoftBank's own $30 billion was 24.6% of the round that produced the $852 billion figure ^[6][16]. So SoftBank itself paid about a quarter of the round that sets the price behind its borrowing. OpenAI has delayed its IPO, so no public market has tested that price ^[8].

SoftBank's balance sheet did stretch, or rather, it stretched for OpenAI, through the bridge and the bond ^[5][4]. The Gulf money would go to a different vehicle, one that deploys AI systems and robotics to make the businesses it buys more efficient, according to the FT as reported by Proactive Investors ^[3]. Raising it from sovereigns repeats 2017, when Son gathered nearly $100 billion of commitments for the first Vision Fund with large backing from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund and Abu Dhabi's Mubadala ^[12].

If the Gulf commits close to the full $100 billion, SoftBank manages outside money and its own books carry only the OpenAI debt already on them ^[1]. A smaller raise is plausible. Proactive Investors wrote that the prolonged Iran war could complicate the effort ^[20]. Son would then have to shrink the fund or seed it with SoftBank capital, and only seeding adds debt. A lower OpenAI valuation before a listing would weigh on the $40 billion to $51.1 billion of borrowing whatever the Gulf decides ^[14].

In my view, the risk for holders of OpenAI-linked names sits in September's financing and the private valuation behind it. The $100 billion ask is SoftBank trying to fund its next deals off its own books. That view is wrong if SoftBank pledges a large share of its own capital to the new fund, or if the fund ends up holding OpenAI-linked assets. Either outcome would add SoftBank money on top of the OpenAI borrowing.