SoftBank pays its final $10 billion into OpenAI with bond money, taking its total to $64.6 billion

Taken at face value, SoftBank's bridge disclosure means about $30 billion was drawn on the $40 billion line ^[1]. SoftBank's own list of disclosures describes that facility as signed primarily for the OpenAI follow-on ^[13]. All of that borrowing has since been repaid ^[6]. The last $10 billion of equity came from foreign currency-denominated senior notes announced on September 24 ^[4], so the position now rests on bonds. The supplied disclosures do not include the notes' size, coupon or maturity.

Before the February commitment, SoftBank already had roughly $34.6 billion in OpenAI: the $64.6 billion total less the $30 billion follow-on ^{[2] [2]}. The follow-on was paid over six months, in tranches dated April 1, July 1 and October 1 ^{[7] [1]}.

Multiply 13% by the February post-money of about $840 billion to $852 billion ^[8] and you get $109 billion to $111 billion ^[3], some $45 billion above SoftBank's $64.6 billion cost ^[4]. Divide the cost by 0.13 and the break-even OpenAI valuation comes out near $497 billion ^[5]. Both inputs are soft. The 13% is SoftBank's approximation ^[3], and the post-money is a range Crypto Briefing reported for a round of $110 billion to $122 billion at a pre-money near $730 billion ^[8].

If the next round prices at or above February's level, the mark holds. Crypto Briefing lists whether that valuation survives any future fundraising as an open question ^[12]. A lower round that still clears $497 billion leaves SoftBank above cost, with less room. The third path runs through Amazon, whose $50 billion includes portions contingent on milestones ^[9]. Crypto Briefing says OpenAI is putting the round's proceeds into compute and data centers ^[14], and part of that money is conditional.

I think the weaker side of SoftBank's position is the liability. The stake gets a new price only when OpenAI raises again. The notes have to be serviced whatever that price turns out to be. This view is wrong if the notes turn out to be long-dated and cheap and the next round prices above $852 billion. In that case the debt is a small cost against a larger asset.

Nvidia did not add to its February check, according to Crypto Briefing. It reported that an extra $10 billion tranche some had expected in October was not finalized ^[10]. SoftBank's $64.6 billion is about 2.15 times Nvidia's reported $30 billion contribution ^[8].