Cloud-partner counting rules open a $20bn gap in OpenAI's revenue forecast

The Guardian's report gives two explanations for the same $20bn. Its opening says the shortfall raises questions about the growth rate of demand for AI ^[4]. Further down, it says the discrepancy arose from attempts by OpenAI's investors to compare the figure more directly with how Anthropic measures projected revenue ^[1]. For anyone setting an AI budget, these are different findings. The first would mean customers bought less than expected. The second would mean the same sales were counted two ways.

The counting difference runs in one direction. Anthropic includes revenue from sales through cloud partners and OpenAI does not ^[2]. An adjustment toward Anthropic's rule should therefore add to OpenAI's own figure. If that is what the investors did, the higher number is the comparable one and the $50bn is OpenAI's narrower count. The Guardian does not say which figure was built on which method, or how much of the $20bn the cloud-partner channel explains.

Thursday's sellers took the demand reading. Nvidia fell 2.9% and Micron 4.8% as the Nasdaq dropped ^[3]. That follows from how these numbers are used: markets watch annualised forecasts from the leading labs as an indicator of overall demand for AI ^[10]. A seller would say a cut of about 29% ^[18] is too large to be bookkeeping. On this record, we do not know yet how much of it is. If the Guardian's attribution holds in full, a change of method moved a demand indicator while customer spending stayed where it was.

The basis also sets the price of the next round. At about $1.4tn ^[6], OpenAI would be valued at 28 times the $50bn figure ^[12] or 20 times the $70bn one ^[13]. Either multiple rests on a valuation about 64% above the $852bn set in March ^[7][14]. Investors considering the $30bn round are pricing one multiple or the other. On the Guardian's account, which one depends on a counting convention ^[1].

In my view, the gap between the two labs cannot carry a vendor bet on its own. The published figures put Anthropic $15bn ahead ^[11]. But Anthropic's number includes cloud-partner sales ^[2] and dates from the end of July ^[5], while OpenAI's projection rests on sales to the end of September ^[17].

The two labs are also heading toward different audiences. Anthropic is expected to push ahead with an initial public offering as soon as next month ^[8]. Sam Altman, OpenAI's chief executive, said last month that the company would not float on the stock market this year, citing safety concerns over AI ^[9].