Seoul's 87-week apartment price run speeds up for the first time in six weeks

Over five weeks the slowdown took 0.20 percentage points off Seoul's weekly pace, and this week won back 0.03 of them ^[18]. The city is now rising at about 41% of its late-August rate ^[19].

Sedaily describes a greater Seoul market split by region ^[11]. The figures support a split, and they also show where the rebound came from. Gangnam District's weekly decline narrowed by 0.22 percentage points, to 0.34% ^[3]. That was the largest change among the Seoul districts Sedaily lists. Seocho's decline eased to 0.27% from 0.33% ^[4]. No cheaper district sped up by as much as Gangnam slowed its fall: Mapo picked up 0.14 points, Gwanak 0.12, Geumcheon and Dobong 0.09 each, Guro 0.08 ^[20]. The figures as reported do not include district weights, so there is no way to split the 0.12% between Gangnam falling less and the outer districts rising faster ^[1].

Measured by the gap between its two ends, the city split less this week. A week earlier, Geumcheon's gain and Gangnam's fall were 0.81 points apart. Now they are 0.68 points apart ^[21].

South of the city, the money has a named source. Analysts cited by Sedaily said Samsung Electronics staff loans have spurred buying around Suwon, and that chip workers' housing demand is spreading to neighboring areas ^[22]. Samsung has given employees the criteria for special bonuses funded by 10.5% of operating profit at its Device Solutions chip division ^[14]. Nam Hyuk-woo, a real estate researcher at Woori Bank, said that "if newly built apartments in Gwanggyo and apartments in Munjeong-dong in Songpa District are similarly priced, semiconductor workers who prefer Seoul may choose Munjeong-dong" ^[16]. He added that "the inflow of money into southern Gyeonggi Province could spread to sought-after areas in Seoul and the rest of the greater Seoul region" ^[17]. Songpa was the one Gangnam-area district whose decline did not ease this week ^[5].

One week of data fits three outcomes. Nam expects the split to hold. He said "the three Gangnam districts are likely to stay weak for a while, given uncertainty over the tax overhaul and concerns that high interest rates will persist" ^[8], and that "in Seoul's lower- and mid-priced districts and southern Gyeonggi Province, gains are likely to continue as owner-occupier buyers shift to areas that are relatively more affordable" ^[10]. The second outcome is a broad recovery, in which Gangnam's decline keeps narrowing until it stops. The third is a turn: the tax revision that set off Gangnam's slide ^[9] deepens it again while the cheaper districts cool.

I think Nam's split is the best description of the data so far, with one correction. This week's rise needed the falling end to fall more slowly, and that end is the one exposed to the tax revision. The split view is wrong if Gangnam's weekly decline widens back toward last week's 0.56% while Geumcheon, Gwanak and Guro slow ^[3][6].